The Horse Race

7/2/20--It’s almost the 4th of July, though if we’re going by the amount of fireworks set off, it’s been 4th of July for several weeks now. There’s also reason for celebration because it’s Poll Release Day. Steve Koczela & co. at The MassINC Polling Group have new data on Massachusetts parents of K-12 students and their experiences with remote learning. But first up, we bring you the latest headlines. Voting reform legislation is on the move after the Massachusetts House and Senate struck a deal this week. After the bill is expected to be voted through by both houses, it will go to the governor’s desk, where, if signed, the Secretary of State’s office would send all Massachusetts voters applications to request mail-in ballots. Voters would receive applications by July 15 for primary ballots and in September for general ballots. As Stephanie Murray reported yesterday, Senators Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders filed a bill to end qualified immunity. Qualified immunity is a judicial doctrine that bars police officers from being sued in their personal capacity when they violate someone’s constitutional rights. A version of the bill has been filed in the house by Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley and Congressman Justin Amash. Stephanie also notes Ed Markey and Bernie Sanders have been teaming up a lot lately, and she wonders if Sanders might endorse Markey some time during his re-election campaign. In the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District, the field of candidates vying for Joe Kennedy’s vacant seat is busy. We spoke with yet another candidate in the race yesterday afternoon. Dave Cavell served in Governor Deval Patrick’s administration as well as President Obama’s, and he told the Horse Race hosts he’s running because….. “I thought we needed to bring real leadership and experience and integrity and professionalism to this work and to the federal government at a moment of real crisis for the country.” “This is the time for somebody who can not just vote the right way, but lead the right way.” The District 4 race is still wide open. Polling shows 60% voters in the district are undecided. Cavell says winning is not determined by who raises the most money. He points to lessons he’s learned from his previous “bosses,” (Maura Healey, Deval Patrick, the Obamas). “Go everywhere and you meet everyone,” Cavell said. “And that’s the way that you win these races.” Thanks to last week’s special guest, MassINC Polling Group Research Director, Maeve Duggan, we got a glimpse into data on Massachusetts parents of K-12 students, who were largely divided over school reopening plans. This week, Steve Koczela brings us more findings on that polling, namely, parents’ experiences in terms of how their kids interacted with school was not at all homogeneous. Whether parents were asked how frequently their child participated in an online class, received personalized feedback, or had a one-on-one check in with a teacher, responses were all over the map. Check out the full slides at https://www.massincpolling.com/the-topline/2020/7/1/new-poll-of-k-12-parents-finds-remote-learning-has-taken-academic-emotional-toll

6/24/20--A state report was released today on the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home that was the site of a deadly coronavirus outbreak. 76 people, more than a third of the veterans residing at the home, died of COVID-19-related causes. The report found that leadership at the state-run home made “substantial errors” that “likely contributed” to the death toll. Investigations from the Massachusetts Department of Justice and Attorney General Maura Healey will follow, and Governor Charlie Baker obtained an outside firm to do an independent review. The report’s release prompted a resignation from the Massachusetts Secretary of Veterans Services, Francisco Urena. This is one of several high-profile resignations from state organizations in recent years, following scandals at the state police, the Registry of Motor Vehicles and the Department of Conservation and Recreation. As Stephanie Murray puts it, “this does seem to be some sort of trend where administration officials end up resigning amid really serious issues, but Charlie Baker’s popularity stays really high.” A web-based initiative to model coronavirus data in the U.S., Covid Act Now, found that only 4 states are on track to contain the coronavirus: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Governors of three of those states — all but Charlie Baker — announced a travel advisory starting Thursday that “all individuals traveling from states with significant community spread” of the coronavirus into one of these states must quarantine for 14 days. anyone who doesn’t follow the advisory could be punished by way of a fine. Baker said MA would not be installing such a requirement, calling such an action “unconstitutional.” Co-host and resident legal analyst Jennifer Smith calls this a weird and kind of thorny issue of constitutional law regarding the essential right to travel between states.” We want to hear from you listeners, should we delve into this further with a constitutional law segment next week? Kentucky voters both hit the polls and mailed in ballots yesterday in a Democratic primary contest for Senate that’s garnered national attention. Amy McGrath leads Charles Booker in in-person vote totals, but mailed ballots are still being counted. Officials estimate a winner might not be announced until next week, when all votes are officially tallied. This trend might continue as vote by mail gains popularity, and we might not know who wins future primary and general elections, even the presidential election, on designated election days. In #Veepstakes news, Sen. Amy Klobuchar this week withdraws her name from consideration as a potential VP pick, urging BIden to pick a woman of color. Variety floated Massachusetts Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley as an option. New data from The MassINC Polling Group shows parents of school-age children are divided over plans for school reopenings. MPG Research Director Maeve Duggan shares the data with The Horse Race hosts. The biggest takeaway? “There’s no clear mandate from parents over what they would prefer, and a sizable portion of them are not confident that schools can reopen safely.” Within that, there are divides by race, income, and geography “that we have come to expect when it comes to anything to do with impacts of the coronavirus.” Maeve says the findings in this data support the narrative found in previous work done by MPG and other outlets, that "those who are less confident [about schools reopening], are the same groups that have borne both the health and the economic brunt of the coronavirus crisis."

6/19/20--As we near the official start of summer, Massachusetts continues with Phase 2 of its reopening plan, with malls and hotels open for business, as well as restaurants for outdoor dining and drinking. No sign yet that Massachusetts will need to backtrack on the reopening, as state officials confirm downward trends continue on each of the four key coronavirus metrics they're tracking. In Supreme Court news, three significant developments were made this week. LGBTQ workers were granted a historic victory when the Supreme Court ruled Monday that the federal law that bars sex discrimination in employment does apply to LGBTQ employees. In a decision that impacts Massachusetts gun laws in particular, justices turned down petitions from 10 challenges to state laws established to limit the availability and accessibility of some firearms and when they can be carried in public. Lastly, on Thursday, the Supreme Court blocked the Trump administration's attempt to end DACA, finding this move unlawful. This decision keeps 640,000 people safe from deportation. State Representative Liz Miranda stops by The Horse Race to discuss legislation she filed alongside Senator Cynthia Creem, An Act to Save Black Lives. The bill, Miranda says, is designed "to really look at use of force guidelines, creating a duty to intervene." It also bans dangerous police tactics such as chokeholds and the use of rubber bullets and tear gas. Independent oversight is called for in the bill, with Miranda naming the attorney general's office as a potential arbiter, saying that while some people turn to civilian review boards when police misconduct is committed, "I looked at the duty of the attorney general and said that there's a real opportunity here to have oversight come from that."

6/10/20-- New data from The MassINC Polling Group show that many Massachusetts renters and homeowners are struggling to make housing payments due to the financial burdens of the coronavirus crisis. MPG President Steve Koczela points to the key finding that people under the most economic strain during the pandemic are also much more likely to be in a household with COVID-19 themselves. Huge disparities exist between demographic groups in likelihood of missing a housing payment, and there is broad support among Massachusetts residents for housing policy proposals. Juana Matias, COO of MassINC and former state Representative for the 16th Essex District of Massachusetts, shares data on race parity in our elected leadership as well as her experience running for the state House of Reps as well as U.S. Congress as a woman of color.

6/3/20--This week we're bringing you a slightly different version of The Horse Race, a one-on-one conversation between our host and former Dorchester Reporter news editor Jennifer Smith, and Boston City Councilor Andrea Campbell. Jenn and Councilor Campbell discuss the protests against systemic racism and police brutality that have broken out in cities all over the world, including Boston, in response to the death of George Floyd by the hands of law enforcement officers. Campbell emphasizes the importance of civil disobedience -- "We know we wouldn't be where we are if folks didn't get out and march," -- but also the necessity to protect police officers -- "Police are people, too." Campbell describes witnessing the many killings of black people by police, "tragic," but also sees this uprising of outrage as "an opportunity to finally implement all the ideas, the solutions that folks in communities of color have been pushing for decades." Some of those ideas Campbell mentioned include diversifying public safety agencies, getting body cameras in every police unit, and making Boston's COOP board a civilian review board.

5/28/20--As Massachusetts businesses begin to reopen, how are residents thinking about their transportation options? New data from The MassINC Polling Group shows that residents are leery about utilizing transit options that involve proximity with others, such as buses and trains. Bay Staters are more amenable to the idea of using solo transportation modes -- walking, bicycling, and driving their own cars. With traffic congestion pre-pandemic already at a breaking point, could the next year bring forth a "carapocolypse" worse than anything we've seen before? Time will tell. CommonWealth reporter Sarah Betancourt stops by The Horse Race to share her recent coverage on the state's unemployment insurance website. For months, the only two languages available on the website were English and Spanish, making it difficult if not impossible for non-English and Spanish speakers to navigate the site and file unemployment claims. This week, multiple new languages were added, weeks after the Governor's office had promised them.

5/21/20-- The coronavirus is leaving nothing untouched these days, and that includes our beloved horse racing. We mean that literally, as it was announced the Belmont Stakes, rescheduled and shortened for June 20, will serve as first leg of Triple Crown. No spectators allowed, for obvious reasons. In #MAPoli news, Governor Baker released details this week about Massachusetts' reopening, leaving our hosts wondering how to maintain social distancing etiquette as more outings, albeit with restrictions, become available. Horse Race co-host and Politico MA Playbook author Stephanie Murray has been keeping a close eye on the #Veepstakes, and runs us through the names that have been circulated as Joe Biden's potential running mate. That list includes Bay State Senator Elizabeth Warren. What could she uniquely contribute that other potential noms could not? Finally, Tuesday's state Senate special elections resulted in 2 more districts turning from red to blue, putting Democrats in control of 90% of the Senate. MassGOP party chairman Jim Lyons said the party's strategy for November's state elections involves zeroing in on districts where Republicans have historically done well, State House News Service reported. Ultra-blue districts considered to be lost causes, meanwhile, will be largely ignored.

5/13/2020--We're back with another live edition of The Horse Race Happy Hour Livestream which you can watch here: https://www.facebook.com/massincpolling/live We begin with Governor Baker's 4-phase reopening plan that illustrates a very basic roadmap of how businesses will begin to open up shop once again. Baker's plan, which he announced on Monday, is short on details and leaves business owners wondering what exactly is in store for them. No guidance has yet been provided in regard to non-business related social distancing measures among individuals. The NBA was one of the first major sports organizations to suspend its season when the coronavirus pandemic became a serious threat in the United States, and while diehard sports fans are eager to see their teams play again, and the organization tries to navigate a path forward, one player is calling for patience and ensuring safety comes first. Enes Kanter, center for the Boston Celtics, joined The Horse Race Livestream, sharing that he's one of those people who's used the extra time quarantine has granted all of us to actually engage in self-improvement. He's taken up cooking, reads often, watches documentaries, and plays piano, though, he admits, "My fingers are too big. I’m pushing the wrong buttons all the time." While he's itching to get back out on the court, he emphasizes, "There’s something way bigger happening than basketball. There’s so many people out there losing their lives, losing their loved ones, losing their homes and businesses, so I feel like, let’s just focus on that right now. And then, I feel like, basketball will come later.” Last week, WBUR released poll findings on Massachusetts nurses on the frontlines of the COVID-19 battle. Our own Steve Koczela of the MassINC Polling Group orchestrated the poll and shared some of the most notable findings. Despite roughly half of the nurses surveyed reporting their workplaces don't have sufficient personal protective equipment, a majority cited levels of morale as somewhat or very high. In looking at leadership during the crisis, an overwhelming majority of nurses approve of the job Governor Baker is doing. This rings true with the general population's approval of Baker as well.

5/7/20--On today's episode we're joined by special guest Irene Li, co-founder and owner of Mei Mei in Boston. She talks about the response to the coronavirus pandemic in the restaurant industry at large, and how things look for her eatery in particular. “We know that we are going to weather this thing, even though we don’t know what the other side will look like.” Mei Mei is one of many Boston restaurants now selling groceries after the city made it legal two weeks ago. Consumers can pick up a variety of items that might be out of stock at grocery stores. Li says, “Sometimes somebody will come in just for dumplings and 4 rolls of toilet paper. Other times they’ll buy a $45 grocery box that has eggs and butter and different veggies, flour and yeast.” The social distancing orders have put a strain on restaurants' bottoms lines and have forced Li and other owners to get creative. “It’s all about thinking about new ways to connect with our guests.” Like making Mei Mei's in-person dumpling-making classes into virtual ones, about which she says, “We are selling those tickets out faster than we can put them up on our website." In case you missed it, Wednesday, May 6 marked the first day that mask-wearing became mandatory in the state of Massachusetts. Governor Baker's order applies to anyone "who is in a place open to the public in the Commonwealth, whether indoor or outdoor, and is unable or does not maintain a distance of approximately six feet from every other person." We're looking at an extremely crowded field vying for the Massachusetts 4th District congressional seat. A ruling put forth last month by the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court cut in half the number of signatures required to get on the primary ballot. As a result, a whopping 10 Democrats and 1 Republican have qualified for the primary.

4/29/20-- When Governor Charlie Baker announced the statewide stay-at-home advisory and non-essential business closure, the expiration date was set for May 4 - this Friday. But on Tuesday, Baker announced the order would remain in place until May 18. That’s another three weeks of closed businesses, remote work, and for many, lost jobs and wages. Even after a 3 week period in which hopefully the number of cases will begin to decline, people are skeptical that a May 18th reopening will in fact take place. After all, this is now the third end date for the stay-at-home and business closure order (April 7, May 4, May 18). So, when can we expect Massachusetts to reopen? As Stephanie Murray explains, Governor Baker often talks about “facts on the ground.” He’ll be looking for downward trends in hospitalizations, deaths, and new cases before making significant moves in reopening. In other news, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh announced Monday the launch of a new program to test residents for coronavirus antibodies. Gov. Baker is lukewarm on using the tests statewide given that their accuracy has not yet been verified.“I think a test that up to a third of the time is wrong is not very helpful.” In an effort to avoid the outcome of Wisconsin’s presidential primary election, wherein roughly 400,000 people went in person to the polls which resulted in at least 36 new cases of coronavirus, Massachusetts is making plans. Secretary of State Bill Galvin said he will announce in early May his plan to expand early voting and voting by mail. State Senator Cynthia Creem has proposed vote by mail legislation, as has our special guest, State Senator Becca Rausch. She’s calling for universal vote by mail. “That means it’s universal to the greatest possible extent for everybody in the Commonwealth who votes, and also automatic to the greatest possible extent.” Under the legislation, everyone registered to vote would receive a ballot in the mail for the November general election, and everyone enrolled in a party would receive a ballot in the mail for the September primary. Those who are unenrolled would apply for the ballot of their choice. The bill also mandates that poll workers be supplied with personal protective equipment, and that election day become a paid holiday.

4/22/2020-- In case you missed our Facebook Live Happy Hour show, you can watch the full thing here! This week brought forward a handful of notable moments. Namely, President Trump said Tuesday he’s going to temporarily suspend immigration to the U.S., a move that we still don’t know a lot about. Meanwhile in Massachusetts, Governor Baker announced schools will remain closed in Massachusetts for the rest of the school year. State House News reporter and BFF of the pod Katie Lannan drops into the virtual hangout to fill in the hosts on how the wheels of state government continue (slowly) to turn. Much of the legislation on Beacon Hill now is understandably COVID-19-focused, such as the housing bill that was passed this week. The bill puts a moratorium on foreclosures and evictions, providing temporary relief to the many who've lost jobs and wages as a result of the crisis. Next, Dan Cence, CEO and Managing Partner of Solomon McCown & Cence breaks down a buzzword that's no doubt been circulating throughout many corporate conversations these days: crisis communications. Leaders in the midst of a moment like this must decide what to do and what to say to the people they're leading. As we've seen, the crisis communications of different mayors, governors, and national leaders has run the gamut. Cence provides insight into what sets some leaders apart when it comes to effective crisis communication.

Watch the video version here! https://youtu.be/s7Y8_LaonQI 4/15/20-- Impacts from the COVID-19 outbreak continue to be felt, as it claims more and more lives, axes the economy, and leaves everyone feeling at least a little uncertain and unsafe. The Trump administration and governors throughout the country have, since the beginning of the virus' spread, disagreed on how to respond. For the most part, though, governors have implemented aggressive actions in their own states that were often more sweeping than what the president installed. However, on Monday, Trump claimed during a press briefing that it was ultimately up to the president to decide when and how to reopen states. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo responded to the notion of the president overriding governors' decisions about reopening state economies, saying such an act would cause a "constitutional crisis." Cuomo announced Monday that the governors of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Delaware would work together in planning the reopening of the states' economies. Once state economies do reopen, though, it's not as if everything will go back to normal. One potentially lasting effect of the coronavirus may be public transportation ridership in Massachusetts. According to WBUR, subway ridership is down 92.7% as of April 9, and bus ridership is down 78% compared to the week of Feb. 24 - Feb. 28. The Massachusetts House of Representatives passed an $18 billion transportation bond bill in the first week of March. Will political will remain as strong when we come out of our respective bunkers and hit the streets again? Or will people's lingering distrust of public spaces and communal surfaces discourage them from taking the T and lead them to rely on driving more than ever? Getting ballot questions in front of voters is a long, expensive tasks that requires many, many signatures. Acquiring those signatures has traditionally required a bunch of in-person contact. Now that such an interaction is pretty much forbidden, how will ballot questions stand a chance of advancing? As it stands now, if the legislature neither dismisses nor signs into law the 4 initiative petitions before them, ballot question organizers will be required to gather 13,000 signatures by July 1st for their questions to make it to the ballot. George Cronin, managing director for Rasky Partners' public affairs practice, drops by The Horse Race to provide his expert analysis.

Watch the video version here! https://youtu.be/p0FdkUhexBM 4/8/20--Almost a month has passed since Governor Charlie Baker announced a state of emergency, and state officials expect the coming days (April 10-April 20) to produce the peak of coronavirus cases in Massachusetts. As of Wednesday, confirmed cases in Massachusetts are up to 16,790, according to The Boston Globe. But the toll of coronavirus isn't hitting all demographics equally. Reports from cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Detroit show that African Americans are experiencing disproportionate impacts from coronavirus. According to NBC, Chicago reported 70% of people who died from COVID-19 were black, though just 30% of their population is black. Similar disparities are appearing in Boston as well. Areas like Hyde Park, Mattapan, Dorchester, and East Boston that are home to large communities of color are experiencing higher rates of COVID-19 than other neighborhoods in Boston. Rep. Ayanna Pressley is calling for demographic data on COVID-19 illnesses including racial data to address disparities in communities of color. Meanwhile out in Western Massachusetts, Northampton Mayor David Narkewicz has recovered from COVID-19. He pops into The Horse Race’s virtual session to talk about how his city is managing a response. He says that the federal response was sluggish, and state-level actions didn't quite meet the level of aggression he felt they ought to. As a result, Narkewicz says, localities are finding their own footing on how best to adapt. Horse Race pollster extraordinaire Steve Koczela provides an update on how Massachusetts residents are feeling as the outbreaks impacts continue to charge ahead. According to new data from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts and The MassINC Polling Group, the physical, emotional, and fiscal health of residents is taking a hit. People--especially lower-income, hourly, and part-time workers-- are losing jobs or wages, dealing with the constant onslaught of frightening headlines, and--particularly urban dwellers--are exercising and getting outdoors less frequently now. On the upside, people are connecting (virtually) with loved ones now more than before.

Watch the video version here! https://youtu.be/tWItbjbzu-Y 4/1/20-- It’s been 11 days since Governor Charlie Baker issued a stay-at-home advisory to the people of Massachusetts, and today, he extended it from April 7th to May 4th. Since then he’s also asked that out-of-state visitors self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival to Massachusetts, or just don’t come here at all. Within the stay-at-home advisory is the mandate that schools and non-essential businesses remain closed until May 4th. These orders have brought up the question of, what defines an essential business? The state deemed recreational marijuana shops non-essential, but liquor stores essential, for example. The coronavirus pandemic’s impacts on our democracy keep coming, and the most recent example of that for Massachusetts elections was the cancellation of the Democratic National Convention. The convention, scheduled for May 30th in Lowell, was cancelled by party chairman Gus Bickford, and the convention endorsement effectively handed to incumbent Senator Ed Markey, facing challenger Joe Kennedy. Stephanie Murray clears up some of the confusion surrounding this news. The anxiety surrounding the future of our economy feels inescapable. And according to polling from The MassINC Polling Group and Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts, the impacts are taking a different toll on the various groups that make up the workforce here in Massachusetts. Younger workers tend to bear more of the brunt of the economic toll, resident pollster Steve Koczela explains. Thank you very much to our listeners for their creative responses to the question, what is one thing you don't have in your quarantine bunker that you wish you did? Now, for this week's question: what's a new hobby you've picked up or an old one you've returned to as result of the long, quiet days?

3/25/20--It's another week of podcasting from our respective bunkers, and another week of coronavirus developments coming at us at breakneck speed. The impacts of the outbreak are even dipping into our elections even, exhibited by the moves to push back the March 31 special elections. Governor Charlie Baker administered a stay-at-home order, shuttering all non-essential businesses. Will Bay Staters listen to the Governor's call? According to the newest poll put out by The MassINC Polling Group and Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts, the majority probably will, as most residents have already been tamping down their social interactions and non-essential errands already. Becky Walker Grossman is a Newton City Councillor running for Congress in the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District, and she joins Steve and Stephanie remotely to talk about her run. She says the outbreak has brought new significance to the issues that were important before all of this -- namely universal health care and access to childcare. 526950