The Horse Race

1/27/21-- It's a new week back in The Horse Race virtual bunker, but Jenn's laser focus on Boston matters has not wavered one bit. Be sure to tune in a couple weeks from now for a special episode covering the Boston City Charter, including a look at this year's special election debacle after Mayor Walsh left his post to join the Biden administration, leaving it open before his term ends. This week, the Massachusetts vaccine rollout continues to receive criticism from various groups. Teachers pushed back on the Baker administration's decision to bump teachers back in the vaccine queue. Meanwhile, people trying to register newly eligible adults 75 and older for a vaccine appointment are reporting long wait times, difficulty navigating the website, and not enough vaccination location options. -- Boston Globe Senior Opinion writer Kimberly Atkins stops by to break down what she expects to see from the Massachusetts delegation under the new Biden administration. She anticipates seeing representatives and senators from the Bay State "being the forward face of a lot of policy and politics in the year ahead." She discusses the possibility of filibuster elimination, but says, ultimately, "What most people in Massachusetts and beyond are concerned about is, can Congress get stuff done? They don’t need to eliminate the filibuster to do their jobs.”

1/21/2021-- This week, we bring you an all-transit episode of The Horse Race. This is also the first episode under the new Biden administration, and we plan to publish an episode exploring what the new administration means for Massachusetts in the very near future. For now, we jump into the news that state Transportation Secretary Stephanie Pollack is departing to serve on the Federal Highway Administration. The development drew responses of praise and criticism on Pollack's job performance. Our guest and Executive Director of TransitMatters Jarred Johnson struck a balance between the two. On Thursday morning when the news broke, he tweeted that Pollack is, "one of the smartest and most talented transportation advocates this Commonwealth has ever seen," but also said, "You cannot change things from the inside when the inside is run by people who fundamentally disagree with your line of thinking." He stops by The Horse Race to provide his take on the legacy Pollack leaves behind, beginning with the hope transportation advocates had when "one of their own" stepped into executive office, and the disappointment they ultimately felt when the transformative actions they sought didn't happen. Later, MassINC Polling Group Research Director comes back on the pod to share new data on Gateway City transportation habits. The survey Rich conducted shows the biggest obstacle to transit ridership is, no surprise, fear of contracting COVID-19. But as more and more people get vaccinated, presumably more people will start feeling more comfortable riding public transportation. And even though ridership is down now, a majority of Gateway City residents support major changes to public transit. Once the severity of the pandemic has subsided, such proposed changes could help make public transit options more attractive than driving. A majority of respondents said driving is their primary mode of transportation, citing reasons of safety, efficiency, reliability, and convenience.

1/13/21--The U.S. House Representatives moves to impeach President Donald Trump today. This comes after last week’s insurrection on the Capitol by rioters who were incited by Trump who has for months been spreading false claims of voter fraud during the presidential election that he lost. State governments are preparing for the potential of more violent acts upon state capitols as we ramp up to Inauguration Day for President-elect Joe Biden. For Massachusetts’ part, Governor Baker has said there are currently no known threats with respect to any public buildings in the state. One Massachusetts native headed to join up with Biden’s administration is Boston Mayor Marty Walsh. The announcement ends speculation on whether he would run for another mayoral term and cracks the race wide open. Stephanie says she’s heard of at least a dozen potential candidates. Thats in addition to the two who’ve already announced their bid - City Councillors Michelle Wu and Andrea Campbell. One of those on Stephanie’s shortlist of potential contenders is today’s guest, State Rep. and Boston Medical Center emergency room doctor Jon Santiago. The 9th Suffolk district lawmaker was recently vaccinated against COVID-19. He says he’s excited about the potential of the vaccine, and he aims to raise awareness to the public about the safety of the vaccine, especially among communities of color. He describes the nationwide rollout of the vaccine thus far as “overpromised and underdelivered.” “We have to get to herd immunity of 70-85 percent. We’re nowhere near that.” He says taking innovative approaches to getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible “is the only way we’re going to get out of this thing.” — New data out today from The MassINC Polling Group illustrates how Massachusetts voters think about state budget priorities and state revenue sources. Steve coordinated the poll and sheds light on its major highlights, perhaps the major one being that voters have a long list of budget priorities for the state legislature. Voters support funding of emergency services related to COVID, especially testing and vaccinations. This option got the most support with 63% saying they strongly supported it. Emergency paid sick time also received broad support, as did housing assistance, and funding to preserve public transportation. A striking division splits the priorities of white voters from those of Black and Latino voters in some areas. For example, Black and Latino voters more often placed high priority on increasing opportunities for homeownership for low-income residents, providing aid to cities and towns, access to affordable childcare, and increasing state contracts with women- and minority-owned businesses. But there are also major areas of agreement. Lowering the cost of healthcare is a priority for both white and non-white voters, as is K-12 education and increasing healthcare access.

1/7/21-- Steve, Jenn, and Stephanie are back in The Horse Race bunker, this time to rehash the unsettling events that took place Wednesday in D.C. when pro-Trump insurrectionists stormed the Capitol building during a process to ratify President-elect Joe Biden's electoral victory. This comes after months of President Trump spouting false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election in which he lost. Rioters were propelled to mob the capitol after a Trump rally that day during which he egged on his crowd. Stephanie called it “a stunning end to the Trump presidency,” but she also pointed out that a resounding sentiment circulating yesterday was that this attack wasn’t exactly surprising to anyone paying attention to what's been spoken about in partisan media and on social media. She spoke with members of the Massachusetts delegation of Congress, all of whom had strong words for the attackers on the capitol and for Trump himself. All members have since called for impeachment or the invocation of the 25th Amendment to strip Trump of his presidential power. Jenn and Steve weigh in on the health of our democracy at this point in time as well as the glaring difference between the mild police treatment of the largely white compared to that of Black Lives Matter protesters this summer that was markedly more aggressive. Later in the show, we play an interview with State House News Service Reporter Katie Lannan that was recorded Wednesday before the insurrection played out in earnest. Katie explains what got accomplished on the last night of the Massachusetts legislative session Tuesday, and what is yet to be decided.

12/30/20-- Farewell, 2020! Can't say we'll miss you, but as you can tell from this week's episode, there were some fun moments after all. Please enjoy this end-of-year blooper reel, and we'll be back with new episodes on Massachusetts politics, policy, and elections in 2021!

12/23/20-- Happy Holidays, Horse Racers! We are guilty of claiming last week was our last episode of 2020, but as soon as we hit 'publish,' there was a major development in the Massachusetts legislature, so, we're back. Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives Bob DeLeo officially filed a disclosure Friday saying he's in talks with Northeastern University about a job there, meaning he could be leaving the post he's held for a record-breaking 12 years. In looking ahead to who may fill DeLeo's position if he does in fact step down, many eyes are turning toward Quincy Rep. Ron Mariano, the house majority leader. Mariano says he has the votes to take DeLeo's seat if the moment comes. Stephanie says based on the conversations she's had with lawmakers and others on Beacon Hill, Mariano's takeover "feels like basically a done deal," and for many, it's felt like that for much longer than just the past two weeks. Stephanie says a House of Representatives under Mariano's helm probably wouldn't function all too much differently than when DeLeo was in charge, given Mariano is DeLeo's top debuty. Rep. Russell Holmes of Mattapan by contrast has long taken issue with DeLeo's style of leadership, and announced his run for the speakership Friday. -- To wrap up the year and to gear up for holiday sessions, Jenn and Stephanie take a look at the most popular holiday foods eaten across the U.S. (and judge them accordingly). The fare is all over the map (literally) - from tamales to lasagna to non-fish seafood. With that, we leave you to enjoy your holiday season. We'll be bringing you much more Horse Race content come 2021!

12/16/20-- This week, we are both celebrating a new development that is the first COVID-19 vaccinations making their way to U.S. citizens, as well as passing a grim milestone that is 300,000 deaths in the U.S. due to COVID-19. Here in Massachusetts, rates of community spread are still worryingly high, and several municipal leaders have decided to roll back reopening in their own cities further than what Gov. Charlie Baker's administration laid out. Some mayors are also calling for a relief aid package that would soften the blow of rolling back reopening on business owners and employees. Mayor Paul Brodeur of Melrose was one of several co-authors to write an op-ed in CommonWealth Magazine last week emphasizing the importance of restrictions and state and federal aid. He stopped by The Horse Race to talk through some of those points. -- It's never too early to look ahead to 2022, and this week saw the first announcement of someone considering a run for Charlie Baker's seat. Danielle Allen, a Harvard Professor, announced she's launched an exploratory committee to run as a Democrat. Baker may even have a primary challenger if former Republican state Senator Geoff Diehl runs, which, according to Stephanie, is a possibility.

12/9/20-- In keeping with baseless election fraud lawsuits happening around the country, Massachusetts political hopefuls have decided to join in the fun. A handful of unsuccessful GOP candidates for Congress and state office in Massachusetts are asking that a federal court overturn the 2020 election results in the state. The claim is that mail-in voting is unconstitutional, but the plaintiffs are not likely to be successful. Suits like these have already been shut down elsewhere in the country, and, Jenn points out, "The biggest hurdle they’re facing right now might just be that they they filed so late. They filed in December so the judge is very very unlikely to suddenly rule that we should throw out an election that happened in November.” -- This week brings sad and exciting news for Massachusetts. Unfortunately, the rates of COVID-19 infections are peaking, with wastewater data showing more community infections than we had in April. And while this week Gov. Charlie Baker announced rollbacks to the reopening plan, bringing the state to Phase 3, Step 1, the details of that plan have public health experts in the state pushing back on Baker. Dr. Ashish Jha, once a supporter of Baker's handling of the crisis, published a series of tweets condemning the governor's lack of more drastic action. In brighter news, though, the governor did also roll out the plan for vaccine dissemination. The plan estimates the vaccine to be available to the general public in April to May. -- A new poll out from the Museum of Science and The MassINC Polling Group finds a vast majority of Massachusetts residents will take the vaccine, which is good news from a public health standpoint. There are, however, differences among demographic groups when it comes to skepticism around the vaccine and *when* they will be willing to take it. It is often wealthy, white groups who are the most likely to take the vaccine immediately after it becomes available to them. President of the Museum of Science Tim Ritchie stops by The Horse Race to talk about the implications of these breakdowns and what can be done to build up public trust in the scientific community.

12/3/20-- Steve and Jenn are back in the bunker after an atypical (but very 2020) Thanksgiving celebration. After a quick excoriation of the cast of characters on The Bachelorette, the hosts transition to a development on the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. Kimberly Budd was sworn in Monday as chief justice of the SJC, succeeding the late chief justice Ralph Gants. This makes her the first Black woman to lead the high court. Justice Dalila Wendlandt was confirmed as the first Latina justice on the Supreme Judicial Court. The composition of the state’s highest court looks to be historically diverse, with three jurists of color on the bench for the first time in its 328-year history. -- Other state developments include the movement of a police reform bill. After months of negotiation, the Massachusetts House and Senate sent a compromise bill to Governor Baker's desk for revision this week. MassLive reporter stopped by The Horse Race this week to walk through the many elements of the bill she describes as "massive." Central tenets include a ban on no-knock warrants when children and people 65 years old and older are home, a ban on facial recognition for government officials and agencies excluding the RMV, and the creation of a Police Officer Standards and Training system and database on officers, among others. -- The MassINC Polling Group released the results of a poll Wednesday that asked Massachusetts residents about proposed MBTA service cuts. In short, residents largely don't approve of the proposed cuts. About two-thirds of them oppose system-wide service cuts, and a roughly similar proportion would rather the State Legislature give the transit agency more funding to close its budget gap. President of The MassINC Polling Group and Horse Race host-turned-guest Tenacious Titan of Transportation Tracking, Steve Koczela runs through the numbers.

11/25/20-- Happy Thanksgiving Horse Race listeners! Get ready to talk turkey (and Jell-O?), but first, some #mapoli news. Former Secretary of State and Senator from Massachusetts John Kerry was tapped to serve as a special presidential envoy for climate for the Biden administration. “I’ve been kind of surprised at how little arguing there’s been about the Biden cabinet so far,” Stephanie Murray says. “His choices aren’t big leaders on the progressive side of the party, but progressives have expressed support for them.” Steve points out this is a very traditional selection of cabinet picks, contrasting from the current makeup of the Trump administration, as Jenn describes, “a totally bonkers array of picks for people to be in charge of anything.” Later, MassINC Polling Group Research Director Rich Parr stops by the virtual bunker this week to share some interesting trends he noticed in comparing statewide voting data from 2016 and 2020. While most of the state went deeper blue in 2020, and Biden received more votes than Hillary Clinton, there were a few places where this wasn't the case, and where Trump still lost, but where he got a higher percentage of the vote than in 2016. Those places are cities: Boston, Fall River, New Bedford, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lowell, Worcester, Springfield and Holyoke, cities that have a significant Latino population, Rich says. "That tracks with something that people have been seeing in the county results nationally." And to end on a festive note without excluding Steve's favorite topic (polling), the hosts talk turkey. The first comes from Dynata and looks at who plans to gather and with how many other people for Thanksgiving. Jenn points out that the Cape is expecting lots of people to gather together for the holiday, and the region is also experiencing relatively high infection rates. Broken down by political party, the people most likely to eat Thanksgiving dinner with people outside their household are members of the Libertarian party, followed by Green Party members, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. As far as what Americans eat on Thanksgiving, the meals vary region to region. While New Englanders eat a surprising amount of fruit salad, the Midwest criminally consume, among other things, chicken and Jell-O on Thanksgiving. Our Midwestern representative Steve Koczela had no comment on the matter.

11/19/20-- With just a couple months until President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration, several #MApoli members are being eyed as potential cabinet members of his administration. Stephanie has been cataloging them for the Politico Massachusetts Playbook, and she's got her eye particularly trained on Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, who is being pushed for Labor Secretary by the president of the AFL-CIO. Other potential Massachusetts-based picks include Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Attorney General Maura Healey, Gov. Charlie Baker, and Congressman Stephen Lynch. -- A new survey out from The MassINC Polling Group finds parents of K-12 students in Massachusetts anticipate negative impacts on their children due to a tumultuous start of the school year. One of the first questions Steve wanted the poll to answer was simply, how are students being taught? It turns out, there's an even split between all remote and hybrid learning (46% each), while just 11% of students are attending school in person all the time. There are significant demographic breakdowns in each of those categories, Steve explains. Black, Latino, and lower-income parents are far more likely to report fully remote school. Meanwhile, Catholic, private school, and high-income parents are more likely to have children attending school in-person. Overall, around half (52%) of parents say the current school year is having a negative impact on their child in terms of academics. Similar numbers say the same of mental / emotional health as well as social / behavioral skills (both 49% negative). -- A report from the Massachusetts division of the U.S. Department of Justice alleges that conditions at the Massachusetts Department of Correction are unconstitutional. As Jenn explains, the MDOC could be in violation of the 8th Amendment, which prohibits cruel and unusual punishment, if there was "deliberate indifference” to the known risk of self harm and suicide by inmates. The DOJ argues that a combination of the housing conditions and issues with those who are supposed to be tasked with monitoring and safekeeping prisoners with serious mental health issues created an extremely unsafe situation. The report recommends the DOC improve their monitoring of prisoners on mental health watch. The DOC has less than 50 days to act. Otherwise, the DOJ can sue the state.

11/11/20--The hosts are off this week so please enjoy a BONUS episode of The Horse Race. It is an exploration of the rise in young adults battling mental health impacts of COVID-19, with a #MAPoli angle, of course.

11/4/20-- What was meant to be a post-election podcast this week is in fact not. As we release this on Wednesday evening, there are still ballots left to count and states that are too early to call. It's not yet clear who our president will be, nor which party will control the Senate. As states scramble to count ballots, The Trump administration said it has filed lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Michigan to halt the counting of ballots there. As Jenn explains, “Depending on the arguments [the Trump administration is] trying to make, they might be trying to argue for ballot counting in some states and no ballot counting in other states, so judges are probably going to be confused about this." Still, she says, it might end up getting kicked all the way up to the Supreme Court anyway, where now 6 conservative justices now sit. Recall that just weeks ago, Amy Coney Barrett declined to commit to recusing herself in this very instance of disputed election results. Stephanie chimes in, noting that. “Counting votes and access to voting, a democratic issue, has become really partisan.” Steve takes it one step further. The GOP's attempts to stymie the momentum of mail-in ballots, which tend to skew democratic, like trying to slow the mail down, preventing counting until Election Day, and now straight-up not counting ballots that came in is “utterly outrageous, anti-democratic, and un-American," he says. Here in Massachusetts, the general election for the U.S. Senate seat was not a close one. Incumbent Ed Markey bested GOP challenger Kevin O’Connor with 67% of the vote compared to O'Connor's 33% with two thirds of precincts reporting, according to the AP. Jake Auchincloss defeated his Republican challenger Julie Hall to fill the District 4 U.S. House of Reps seat vacated by Joe Kennedy III. All the remaining members of the Massachusetts delegation kept their spots. And on Beacon Hill, Democrats maintain their supermajority in the legislature. Massachusetts voters decided on two ballot questions this election. Question 1, a "Right to Repair" law passed easily by a 3-to-1 margin. Unofficial results showed voters backing that measure 75 percent to 25 percent with about 83 percent of precincts reporting. With a roughly $50 million price tag, this is the most expensive ballot question campaign in MA history. A majority of Massachusetts voters chose ‘no’ on Question 2, meaning ranked-choice voting will not appear in elections in 2022. Stephanie says this loss was frustrating to progressive democrats, especially since the Yes on 2 campaign was much more active than the No on 2 campaign, who Steve describes as “basically an OCPF filing and a Twitter account.” Pollsters are getting beaten up on Twitter this election season much like 2016. Steve points out that while a lot is still unknown to determine polls' accuracy, "At some point, we pollsters have to acknowledge this is a problem. People are using things that we’re saying that aren’t correct and taking action based on that, so it’s having consequences.”

10/28/20-- In the run-up to the 2020 election, the drama of U.S. congressional races pretty much ended with the primaries. But, there's still news to be made this week, and Gov. Charlie Baker brought all eyes to Ballot Question 2 Tuesday when he and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito issued a joint statement coming out against ranked-choice voting. "At a time when we need to be promoting turnout and making it easier for voters to cast their ballots, we worry that question two will add an additional layer of complication for both voters and election officials, while potentially delaying results and increasing the cost of elections," the statement read. The timing of the statement is interesting, Stephanie says, because it comes after roughly 1.7 million voters already cast their ballots in Massachusetts. This is an instance where the issue has clearly become a partisan one in the weeks before the election. GOP candidate for Senate Kevin O'Connor came out against ranked-choice voting, as did the MassGOP, and now Baker and Politio. On the other side, Massachusetts Democrats Sen. Ed Markey, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Attorney General Maura Healey have all come out in favor of ranked-choice. -- Joining the hosts to discuss the national angle is friend of the pod Vicki McGrane, reporter from the Boston Globe. She recently wrote about the Democrats' chances of turning the Senate blue in 2020. Compared to January of this year, the common thinking around this probability has changed drastically. Back then, it was largely assumed Republicans had a slight edge over Democrat to hold on to their power. Now, McGrane says, there's been "an incredible shift." Democrats are now widely believed to take over the Senate majority thanks in large part to recent events. "The president, and the pandemic, and everything that’s happened in this crazy year, George Floyd, has conspired to help Democrats really expand the map and be competitive in places like Kansas, Alaska, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina... it just goes on and on.” -- A new survey out from UMass Amherst and WCVB asked Massachusetts voters about their confidence in elections as well as their feelings about the potential for violence after the election. The results were troubling. Seventy-nine percent of voters are at least somewhat concerned about the possibility of violence associated with the 2020 presidential election. Fifty-six percent of voters are at least somewhat confident that votes will be counted as voters intend this election.

10/22/20--With the 2020 election just days away, Jenn, Steve, and Stephanie have a lot to discuss. And that starts with a much needed recap of this week's cringe-inducing episode of The Bachelorette. In even more unsettling news, the Trump administration has been administering an onslaught of attacks upon Dr. Fauci, the CDC, and the media. "It just doesn't make any sense, does it?" Steve asks. Jenn thinks that while it doesn’t make sense to undermine health authorities’ guidance during a pandemic, the rhetoric makes sense for this administration whose stance has been consistent since the pandemic began, and the newest statements are “sadly predictable.” The administration attempting to discredit health experts is especially worrying now, as we are already experiencing national surges in cases, and the upcoming fall and winter might bring the highest number of cases yet. -- A statewide ban on evictions and foreclosures came to an end this Saturday, the fallout of which Jennifer Smith has been keeping a close eye on. As housing courts open up, Jenn says what government officials have been trying to remind everyone of is that the end of the moratorium "does not mean people can immediately kick you out of the house." Still, it's an open question whether housing courts will be able to handle eviction cases if in fact a swell of them begins to appear, and “whether measures gov will put in place will be enough to stem that tide," Jenn says. “We just don’t know how bad it’s going to be right now.” -- Early voting is in full swing in states across the country including Massachusetts. And MassINC Polling Group Research Director Rich Parr has been following data on early voting as it comes in from around the state. His first impressions are that, first of all, a lot of people are voting early. As of Tuesday, over a million people have returned their ballots and thus officially voted early for this election. “If you compare it to 2016, overall it’s almost 30% of all the ballots cast in the 2016 election have already been cast in 2020.” Much like Rich’s findings in early voting data for the primary election this year, early voting is strongly concentrated in “a lot of the wealthier suburbs, kind of in the metro west part of the Boston area.” Rich names Lexington, Concord, Lincoln, Sudbury, Natick and Wellesley, for example, or “well-off” towns with high levels of education as measured by the percentage of people who have a bachelor’s degree in the town. With weeks to go before Election Day, Jenn points out, “People who are voting multiple weeks before election day are kind of voting on a slightly different race, theoretically.” Rich notes that while late-breaking news stories shifted polling percentages around quite a bit in the weeks leading up to Election Day in 2016, 2020 has been a different story. Biden’s maintained a rough average of an 8 to 10-point national lead over Trump for a while. “The character of this race has been much more stable than what we saw in 2016," he says.