The American Interest

Relevant Reading: Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Mans Fight for Justice Bill Browder Good evening, listeners! We have a real treat for you this week as we invite onto the show Bill Browder, founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and author of the newly-released book Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Mans Fight for Justice. Browder takes us through his incredible story, from the heady days at Hermitage Capital in a newly capitalistic Russia to Moscows eventual souring. He recounts the harrowing ordeal of his lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, whose sadistic mistreatment at the hands of his jailers eventually led to his cruel death in 2009. Browder discusses his subsequent quest for justice and the eventual signing of the Magnitsky Act. Dont miss this show or this book—Browders tale is as chilling as it is well-told. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and Bill Browder @Billbrowder on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: Nigeria Security Tracker: Weekly Update January 17-January 23 John Campbell Nigerias Elections in 2011 and 2015 John Campbell The Fall and the Rise of France Benjamin Haddad Good evening, listeners! We have an excellent episode for you this week as the Council on Foreign Relations Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa policy studies and former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell returns to the show to discuss the latest news in the West African country, while Hudson Institute research fellow Benjamin Haddad makes his first appearance to examine the broader implications of Syrizas landslide win in Greeces elections over the weekend. First, Ambassador Campbell looks at the likelihood of an election defeat in the cards for President Goodluck Jonathan in the face of falling oil prices and the rise of Boko Haram. He points out that the election is now a genuine race in Nigeria, despite the fact that since the restoration of civilian government in 1999 no incumbent president has been defeated. He speaks on the credentials of the opposition candidate, General Muhammad Buhari, before moving to Secretary Kerrys visit to Nigeria over the weekend. Then, Benjamin Haddad talks about what Syrizas big election win might mean for the countrys foreign policy. He says that this signals a shift closer to Russia, aligned with an anti-EU worldview. He argues that Syrizas first priority will be renegotiating bailout packages and focusing on anti-austerity measures, but also discusses the problems this new government could make for EU-wide policy, especially regarding new rounds of sanctions against Russia. He discusses the connections Syriza has with extremist parties around Europe, and remarks on the irony—pointed out by our own WRM—of anti-EU political parties fomenting a kind of pan-European politics. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous, Ambassador Campbell @JohnCampbellcfr, and Benjamin Haddad @benjaminhaddad on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: Treasure Islands: Uncovering the Damage of Offshore Banking and Tax Havens Nicholas Shaxson The Much-Too-Special Relationship Nicholas Shaxson Russias Output Will Slump Sharply in 2015 Anders Åslund Good afternoon, podcast listeners! This Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, we bring you a real treat of a podcast. First, author Nicholas Shaxson stops by to participate in a fascinating discussion of the role tax havens play in todays globalized world. He notes that the United States itself has some characteristics of a tax haven, and tells of a global race to the bottom as various states try to out-compete one another in favorable tax codes that lure multinationals. Then, Anders Åslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, looks at the economic crisis descending on Russia. He describes how the plunging price of oil, Western sanctions, and domestic market inefficiencies and corruption are all combining to drastically lower Russias GDP in 2015, and paints a grim picture of the countrys foreseeable economic future. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: France and the New Charismatic Jihad Reuel Marc Gerecht The Battle for the Big Easy Don Hickey The War of 1812: A Forgotten Conflict Don Hickey Good evening, podcast listeners! First up on this weeks episode is Reuel Marc Gerecht, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former Middle Eastern specialist at the CIAs Directorate of Operations, who discusses the aftermath of last weeks brutal attack on the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. He notes that France has been concerned about this kind of attack for some time, and discusses what it means for the rest of the worlds ability to deal with Islamic extremism. Gerecht also warns against over-inflating the prowess of those involved in the attack, before moving on to talk about what it might mean for the Schengen free movement area, and for the debate over the rise of the surveillance state. Then, Wayne State College in Nebraska professor of history Don Hickey joins us to discuss the Battle of New Orleans, some few days after its 200th anniversary. He notes that while it was the last great battle of the War of 1812, the Battle of New Orleans had little impact on the war itself. Instead, Hickey argues, it had a lasting impact on how Americans remembered the war. He explains why Canadians tend to remember the war better than Americans do, and recaps some of the details of the battle itself—which wrapped up in less than half an hour—dispelling some common myths surrounding it. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: The Winners of 2014 Walter Russell Mead The Seven Great Powers Walter Russell Mead Good evening, podcast listeners! In the perfect coda to an eventful year and a great primer for whats ahead, Walter Russell Mead, Editor-at-large and Director of The American Interest Online, returns to the podcast to lend his expertise to a discussion of goings-on around the globe. WRM assesses the winners and losers of 2014, lauding President Xis terrific year, while noting that China didnt enjoy the same degree of success as the countrys increasingly powerful leader. He looks at the progress Modi, India, Abe, and Japan all made last year, before shifting focus to Europe and fixing Angela Merkel and Germany in his crosshairs. As for Vladimir Putin, WRM remarks on the piece of very bad luck that has hampered his geopolitical maneuvering: the oil price crash and the effect it is having on the Russian economy. He reminds us, however, that the question in eastern Europe should not be how strong is Russia? but rather how weak is Ukraine? Also discussed are the rampaging destruction of Ebola and Boko Haram in Africa, the failings of social media activism, the rapid rise of ISIS, the Saudis series of strategic successes, the U.S. energy renaissance, Americas best Mr. Magoo impression, and expectations for a more active American foreign policy. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and Walter Russell Mead @wrmead on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: The End of History and the Last Man Francis Fukuyama Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy Francis Fukuyama Good evening, podcast listeners! This holiday season, were taking the time to look back at the end of our shows debut year. In that retrospective spirit, were bringing you two interviews with noted political scientist, Stanford University senior fellow, and TAI Chairman Francis Fukuyama: the first focusing on the 25th anniversary of his famous The End of History? essay, and the second looking at his newest book, Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can follow our host, Richard Aldous, on Twitter @RJAldous and Francis Fukuyama @FukuyamaFrancis.

Relevant Reading: The Delusional Vladimir Putin David J. Kramer A Conversation with Estonias President: We Have Allowed Aggression to Stand David J. Kramer The Tortured Report Adam Garfinkle Good evening, podcast listeners. With apologies for the late night posting this week, we present you our latest episode. First up, David Kramer, Senior Director for Human Rights and Human Freedom at the McCain Institute for International Leadership, talks to our host Richard Aldous about the various signs of serious troubles in Russias economy, and chews over the likelihood that Vladimir Putin might be displaced, either by a popular revolution or by a palace coup. The interview ends with a brief discussion of the fascinating interview David did with Estonias president, Toomas Ilves, and the unpredictability of Putins regime. Next, our own Adam Garfinkle goes a bit deeper into the context behind his must-read essay from last week dealing with the Sentates CIA torture report, musing on how the media landscape almost ensures that complicated stories like these are both shorn of context and nuance for maximum emotional resonance, and then quickly forgotten when the next big story comes along. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: American Traitors Mark M. Lowenthal National Insecurity: American Leadership in an Age of Fear David Rothkopf Good evening, podcast listeners! We have a truly excellent episode for you today, as we welcome to the show two expert guests ready to discuss the Senate Intelligence Committees recent report on the CIAs use of torture. First, we speak with Mark M. Lowenthal, president and CEO of the Intelligence andamp; Security Academy and former Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis andamp; Production from 2002 to 2005, about the recent Senate Intelligence Committee report. He points out that political machinations were very much at play in the writing and release of the Committees report, and notes that many members of Congress had been briefed on the CIAs activities. He notes that by not talking to many of the people involved, and by relying so extensively on documents as evidence, the reports objectivity has been called into question. He plays down the possibility of prosecution of those involved, pointing out the Administrations careful avoidance of using the word torture, but notes that many of the people named in the report will be very careful about traveling outside of the United States for fear of extraterritorial indictment. He also reminds us that its difficult to recapture the atmosphere of fear that gripped the U.S. intelligence community in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Then, CEO and Editor of Foreign Policy David Rothkopf joins us to place the Senate report in the broader context of American politics and governance today. He points out that, despite the questions raised regarding the reports methodology, many of the facts are not in dispute, namely that the United States tortured people, that it did so in contravention of international law and American values [and] that the CIA was misleading about what was going on and how effective it was. He says that our decision to contravene international conventions against torture was a defeat for the United States of America and a betrayal of American values. He also looks at the American response to terrorism under President Bush, arguing that Bush grew while in office. He contrasts this with President Obama, who in his estimation has not made similar strides thus far. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and David Rothkopf @djrothkopf on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: Detroit’s Bankruptcy and Its Painful Reforms Stephen Eide Good evening, podcast listeners! We have two excellent segments for you this week, one domestic and one very much international. First, Richard Tol, professor of economics at the University of Sussex and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and veteran of four assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, speaks about the ongoing climate summit in Lima, Peru. He outlines the problems caused by the oversimplification of climate change to include only surface-temperature warming before reminding us that change is a neutral word, and that future shifts in our climate will not be universally negative. He argues that the climate change movement has been hijacked by green groups which have a vested interest in stoking hysteria, and that this apocalyptic world view is not supported by the science. He also suggests that climate change adaptation techniques are in many cases cheaper and more practical options than efforts to mitigate it. Then, a week after the lights literally went out in Detroit, Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Stephen Eide discusses the challenges still ahead for Detroit as it emerges from Chapter 9 bankruptcy. He contrasts the recent surge of optimism within Detroit about the citys future with the more skeptical stance many outsiders are taking as they look under the hood of this bankruptcy plan. He points to pensions as the crux of Detroits problems, and looks at what might happen in struggling cities elsewhere in the country if Detroit is able to navigate these challenges successfully. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and Richard Tol @RichardTol on Twitter.

Good evening, listeners! This week we have a special treat for you, as we invite two guests to preview a pair of excellent essays in the upcoming print edition of the magazine. We welcome Jeff Lightfoot, senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, onto the show to discuss Frances suspension of the delivery of the first of two Mistral warships to Russia. He notes that, while the French government may still want to sell these ships for economic and strategic reasons, it is coming to an understanding that it cant be the skunk at the picnic by delivering them while the West continues to ratchet up the pressure on Russia. We also learn why this specific ship, known as the Swiss army knife of Frances navy, is so important (hint: it has more to do with software than hardware). Then, NYU law professor Stephen Holmes discusses a piece he co-wrote with Ivan Krastev, taking a look at whether Putins strategy has been proactive or reactive. He raises the question of whether or not Moscows recent actions might best be understood as an attempt to deliberately try to isolate itself from the West. He looks at the effect Western sanctions are having, both within Russia and outside it, and argues that this does not bode well for the predictability of Russias behavior in the future. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and Jeff Lightfoot @jeffdlightfoot on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: Putin Targets the Scandinavians Andrew A. Michta Russias Big Bear Hug on China Gal Luft Petropoly: The Collapse of Americas Energy Security Paradigm Anne Korin and Gal Luft Good evening, podcast listeners! What a treat we have for you this week, as we invite Dov S. Zakheim to talk about Chuck Hagels resignation, Andrew A. Michta to discuss Russian pressure on Scandinavia, and Gal Luft to analyze an enormous new gas deal between Moscow and Beijing. First, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Under Secretary of Defense and Chief Financial Officer for the Department of Defense from 2001–04 Dov S. Zakheim discusses Defense Secretary Chuck Hagels surprise resignation, describing him as a sacrificial lamb. Zakheim remarks that Hagels departure is intended to signal shift within the Adminstration—a reaction to changing circumstances—but notes that Hagel was never part of Obamas inner circle. Zakheim looks at the options for who comes next, and acknowledges Michele Flournoy is a competent replacement who should be acceptable on both sides of the aisle, before concluding with a decidedly dour assessment of President Obamas foreign policy, saying that wherever you look, we are beleaguered. Then, Andrew A. Michta, the M. W. Buckman Professor of International Studies at Rhodes College and an adjunct fellow at CSIS, returns to the show to discuss recent Russian incursions in Scandinavia, sure to be near the top of the new Defense Secretarys list of priorities. He discusses why the region is being singled out for bullying before reminding us that the military capabilities of Sweden and Finland are questionable. He also points out that the kind of instability so prominently on display in Ukraine could soon threaten Russia as well if the price of oil continues to drop. Finally, we welcome to the show Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, Senior Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, and co-chairman of the Global Forum on Energy Security in Beijing, to speak on the massive new natural gas deal (or, as he points out, what may be understood more accurately as a memorandum of understanding) between Russia and China. He wonders whether the fact that this landmark agreement was concluded just one day before Obama arrived in Beijing was deliberately offensive, and argues that this deal is more important than the one made earlier this year as it involves existing pipeline networks already connecting the West with the East. Host Richard Aldous asks him the billion dollar question—how Russia will be able to afford its share of the pipeline costs in the face of plunging crude prices and heavy Western sanctions—before Michta concludes with an examination of how a cozier relationship between Moscow and Beijing might be felt in Asia, particularly in Tokyo. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: Nuclear Know-How Adam Garfinkle andamp; Gary Samore Obama’s Big China Win at APEC: Not What You Think Elizabeth C. Economy By All Means Necessary: How Chinas Resource Quest is Changing the World Elizabeth C. Economy and Michael Levi Good evening, podcast listeners! Youre in for a stellar episode this week, as we take the time to look both ahead to next weeks deadline for Iranian nuclear negotiations, and back to the momentous agreements between the U.S. and China at last weeks APEC summit. First, Gary Samore, President Obamas White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Arms Control and Counterterrorism from 2009 to 2013 and executive director for research at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, looks at the state of the negotiations to curb Irans nuclear program as they move to Vienna this week ahead of a November 24 deadline. He argues that its very unlikely a deal will be hashed out, as supreme leader Khamenei looks dead set against any proposed curtailment of his countrys nuclear program. Samore discusses the likelihood that the two sides will agree to extend the deadline, noting that both the U.S. and Iran see the maintenance of the status quo as beneficial. He covers a large range of topics related to these negotiations, including the rise of ISIS, Russias interests, Americas new Republican-controlled congress, and President Obamas recent letter to Khamenei. Then, Elizabeth C. Economy, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, takes a look at what has changed in U.S.-China policy after last weeks APEC summit. She discusses the importance of the climate agreement, and looks at how cooperative a Republican Congress might be with regards to the Presidents goals in Asia. She also speaks on what this means for the Presidents popularity and his Administrations legacy, and evaluates Americas pivot to Asia as a work in progress, but one that is working. In conclusion, she offers her assessment of how these agreements were received by Americas allies. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and follow our host Richard Aldous @RJAldous and Liz Economy @LizEconomy on Twitter.

Relevant Reading: The Decay of American Political Institutions Francis Fukuyama The Big Fix: The Hunt for the Match-Fixers Bringing Down Soccer Brett Forrest Good evening, TAI podcast listeners! Youre in for a treat this week. First, we bring you the second half of Richard Aldouss interview with Stanford University senior fellow and TAI chairman Francis Fukuyama, in which the two discuss Franks upcoming book, the second volume of The Origins of Political Order, due out this Fall. The topic touches on the advantages of a civil service staffed by eunuchs, the Chinese origins of the modern state, and the decay of American political institutions. Then, Richard speaks with Brett Forrest, author of The Big Fix: The Hunt for the Match-Fixers Bringing Down Soccer, about new allegations of corruption within the ranks of FIFA, the premier global governing body for the sport. The World Cup is displaying the balletic qualities of the beautiful game, but its also shining a spotlight on its dirtier underbelly. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can follow our host, Richard Aldous, on Twitter @RJAldous, Brett Forrest @brett_forrest, and Francis Fukuyama @FukuyamaFrancis.

Relevant Reading: The End of History and the Last Man Francis Fukuyama Good evening, TAI podcast listeners! We have a real treat for you this week, as we invite noted political scientist, Stanford University senior fellow, and TAI Chairman Francis Fukuyama on the show. In part 1 of the interview, Frank discusses how the neoconservative movement used—or maybe more accurately-put misused—the ideas put forward in his The End of History? essay, and looks back on what has changed—and what hasnt—in the years since the essays 1989 publication. You wont want to miss this episode or next weeks, in which Richard turns the focus towards Franks new book, the second volume of The Origins of Political Order, due out this fall. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can follow our host, Richard Aldous, on Twitter @RJAldous and Francis Fukuyama @FukuyamaFrancis.

Relevant Reading: Faced with Nigel Farage, what would Tony Blair do? Michael White Its time we took Nigel Farage more seriously than he seems to take himself Michael White Ukraine Presidential Election Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Good evening, TAI podcast listeners! We have an excellent episode for you today, so kick back, relax, and enjoy the show. First, host Richard Aldous speaks with Michael White, assistant editor at the Guardian, about the rise of fringe parties in recent European Parliamentary elections, and the two discuss what UKIPs unprecedented rise might mean for Britains domestic politics. Then, James Ketterer, Bard Colleges Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Liberal Education and Director of International Academic Initiatives at the Center for Civic Engagement joins us to discuss his time spent working as an observer of Ukraines recent presidential elections. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can follow our host, Richard Aldous, on Twitter @RJAldous, Michael White @MichaelWhite, and James Ketterer @jpketterer.