The Disciplined Investor

Market action is going from bad to worse. Wondering about inflation – yes inflation. Another government shutdown looms – what happens next? And our guest – Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research Ed Easterling is the founder and President of Crestmont Holdings, an Oregon-based investment management and research firm that publishes provocative research on the financial markets at www.CrestmontResearch.com. He has over thirty years of alternative investment experience, including financial markets, private equity, and business operations. Mr. Easterling is the author of recently-released Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights and Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles (Cypress House; 2005). In addition, he is contributing author to Just One Thing (John Wiley & Sons; 2005) and co-author of chapters in Bull‘s Eye Investing by John Mauldin. Mr. Easterling is a Senior Fellow and a Board Member at the Alternative Asset Management Center at SMU‘s Cox School of Business in Dallas, and previously served as a member of the adjunct faculty teaching the course on alternative investments and hedge funds for MBA students. Mr. Easterling holds a BBA in business, a BA in psychology, and an MBA from Southern Methodist University. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (AAPL)

48 hours in Nashville. Mega-Caps puke up some of the recent gains - then try for a little run. Potential for reflation – watch for that word…  Not seeing and significant drop in CPI. Our Guest today is Lou Basanese – President of Public Ventures, LLC. Lou is a well-known thought leader and advocate for young technology companies with promising intellectual property. He brings decades of experience as a public venture investor and independent analyst, as well as a marketing, communications and investor and public relations professional. As President, Chief Market Strategist at Public Ventures, Lou focuses on leveraging the firm’s unique and proven process to elevate new technology companies into market leaders to establish public venture as a vital asset class to a much wider community of investors. Prior to joining Public Ventures, Lou served as Founder and Chief Analyst for Disruptive Tech Research, an independent equity research and advisory firm, focusing exclusively on disruptive technology companies. He also co-founded one of the web’s largest financial publishers with a daily circulation to more than 700,000 investors and served as Investment Consultant for an institutional investment consulting practice with over $2 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley. Lou regularly shares his insights on national media outlets such as FOX Business, CNBC and Yahoo! Finance. He received a B.A. from the University of Florida and an MBA from the Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins College. He currently serves on the board of directors of Endra Life Sciences (NDRA) and The Roberto Clemente Health Clinic. Follow @LouBasenese Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (GOOG), (AMZN)

The USA debt rating is CUT! Most earnings are out and we have the results. Weekly oil inventories – largest draw-down EVER! Guest – Cullen Roch founder of Discipline Funds, helps us navigate risk. Mr. Roche founded Discipline Funds to help investors obtain access to low fee, diversified portfolios that help them stay the course and meet their financial goals. Cullen’s primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, monetary economics, financial accounting and behavioral finance. Prior to establishing his own business, Cullen worked at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he worked on a team overseeing $500MM+ in assets under management. Upon leaving Merrill Lynch, Cullen managed a private investment partnership which took advantage of reporting irregularities ahead of major corporate events. The strategy generated substantial positive alpha (high risk adjusted returns) without a single negative year of returns from 2005-2011. He formed Orcam Financial Group in 2012 to help better serve the much needed retail space with sophisticated but low fee asset management and financial planning services. Cullen is also a prolific writer. In addition to the weekly musings on his website Pragmatic Capitalism, he is the author of the popular book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance as well as “Understanding the Modern Monetary System,” one of the top 10 all-time most downloaded research papers on the SSRN academic research network. He is also the author of the popular white paper “Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.” He was named one of the “Top Wall Street Economists, Experts and Opinion Leaders” of 2011 by Wall Street Economists and was named one of the “101 Best Finance People” by Business Insider, where he was described as “one of the most influential economic thinkers today.” In 2015, Cullen was named one of the “40 Under 40” most influential people in finance by InvestmentNews. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times. Cullen is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in Southern California with his family, troublesome pup Callie and flock of chickens. Follow @CullenRoche Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AMD), (TUP), (YELL)

Bank of Japan spooks investors. DJIA breaks it winning streak - almost had the all-time record. News to use, valuations to value. Guests, David Gaffen (Reuters) and Vitaly Katsenelson (IMA) David Gaffen is the U.S. breaking news companies editor at Reuters, where he has worked for 14 years. He also did stints as the U.S. energy editor and U.S. deputy markets editor and has been a business journalist for more than 20 years. In that time he has covered the 2008 financial crisis, the oil-market meltdown in 2020, and was nominated for a Loeb Award for a series of articles on the growth of stock buybacks in 2015. He lives in New York with his family. Follow @DavidGaffen Born and raised in Murmansk, Russia (the home for Russia‘s northern navy fleet, think Tom Clancy‘s Red October). Immigrated to the US from Russia in 1991 with all his family three brothers, father, and stepmother. His professional career is easily described in one sentence: He invests, He educates, he writes, and he could not dream of doing anything else. He is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates, Inc (IMA), a value investment firm based in Denver, Colorado. After he received his graduate and undergraduate degrees in finance (cum laude) from the University of Colorado at Denver, and finished his  CFA designation, he wanted to keep learning. He figured the best way to learn is to teach. At first he taught an undergraduate class at the University of Colorado at Denver and later a graduate investment class at the same university that he designed based on his day job. He found that the university classroom was not big enough, so he started writing. He writes a monthly column for Institutional Investor Magazine and he has written articles for the Financial Times, Barron‘s, BusinessWeek, Christian Science Monitor, New York Post, and the list goes on. He was profiled in Barron‘s, and has been interviewed by Value Investor Insight, Welling@Weeden, BusinessWeek, BNN, CNBC, and countless radio shows. Vitaliy has authored the Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, 2010) and Active Value Investing (Wiley, 2007). Follow @vitaliyk Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

The AI tech wash is getting old. Earnings in and so far, no surprises. One sell off day in a sea of buying. A recap of my discussion with Goldman Sachs. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (MSFT), (NFLX), (TSLA), (SCHWB), (BAC), (JPM)

Its that time again – earnings season is upon us. Markets in a new bull run – getting a little frothy though... Inflation is Only 3% Now – but that is against the high watermark and our guest, Patrick O’Hare – Chief Market Analyst for Briefing.com. Patrick has been with Briefing.com since 1997 and authors the Page One, The Big Picture, Fed Brief, Market View, and Economic Data Reviews columns. He also provides commentary on Live In Play. Every Wednesday morning Patrick is a guest on KDOW's The Rob Black Show. He is quoted regularly in the financial press and has also appeared on CBS Radio, CNBC, CNN International, Fox Business Network, and PBS’ Nightly Business Report. Patrick is a graduate of Vanderbilt University and is located in Chicago. Follow @Briefingcom Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (JPM), (BAC), (NFLX), (SPY)

Rates spike to decade long highs. The employment reports provide mixed messages. Resilient – that is the name of the game -  And a look back in order to look forward. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (JPM)

June is over – in the books – now the summer is finally here. Back to that question – Is this a new Bull market? We have some more info to discuss. NASDAQ 100 best 6 month start in decades! And things that were said that markets ignored. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (QQQ)

June coming to a close and what an interesting month it has been. Crypto coming under pressure – SEC is making moves. Inflation kicking up again around the world – wondering about US numbers. And our guest this week is Frank Curzio from Curzio Research. Frank Curzio can be reached by email at frank@curzioresearch.com Frank Curzio is an equity analyst with close to two decades of experience covering small- and mid-cap stocks. Check out his newsletters. (Free trial subscriptions available) He has been the editor of several well respected newsletters with major companies as well on of the top performers with TheStreet.com where he significantly outperformed the markets during his tenure. He was also a research analyst for Jim Cramer. Frank is the host of Wall Street Unplugged. Frank has been a guest on various media outlets including Fox Business News, CNBC's The Kudlow Report and CNBC's The Call. He has also been mentioned numerous times on Jim Cramer'ss Mad Money, is a featured guest on CNN Radio and has been quoted in financial magazines and websites. Before TheStreet.com, Frank was the editor of The FXC Newsletter and received one of the top rankings by Hulbert's Financial Digest for risk-adjusted performance. Follow @frankcurzio Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (SPY), (BTCUSD), (GLD), (AI), (GNRC), (AMZN), (NCLH), (CCL)

A pause or a maybe skip is what the Fed has ordered. Coming in hawkish and market is spooked...for about 10 minutes. New highs driven by – you guessed it the Mega Caps. A question answered: Are we in a new bull market? A complete discussion about the inner workings of quantitative analysis. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GNRC), (AI), (JPM), (NYCB)

OPEC Cuts production – at least on country does. Still, oil drops. Odds still favor a fed SKIP – the new word on the street. A look at ROE and market performance during recessions. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (OIL), (AMD), (NVDA)

May Market Madness   – Tech vs. everything else. Politicians create problems – just to fix them – My Heroes! Bifurcating markets – that is of interest. And out Guest – Tom Nelson, Lead Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Funds. Tom Nelson is a senior vice president and head of asset allocation portfolio management for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. He is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee. Mr. Nelson is a portfolio manager of a number of funds offered for sale in various jurisdictions. He is lead portfolio manager of the Franklin NextStep Fund series, the Franklin VolSmart Allocation VIP Fund and numerous model portfolio programs. He is portfolio manager of Franklin LifeSmart Retirement Target Funds, the Franklin Fund Allocator Series available in the United States and several custom institutional portfolio mandates. Mr. Nelson joined Franklin Templeton in 2007 and co-founded the firm's quantitative research services group upon joining the company. He moved to Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions in 2009. Prior to working at Franklin Templeton, Mr. Nelson worked for Bloomberg LP from 1991 to 2007, where he was most recently manager of the Americas market specialist teams. Mr. Nelson holds a B.S. in accounting from the University of Delaware. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charterholder and a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charterholder. He is a member of the CFA Institute, the New York Society of Security Analysts and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (GOOG), (META), (NVDA), (AMD), (CRM)

Memorial Day is here and we can smell the summer! Government creating problems – just to solve them? Risk appetite perking up and our guest this week is President and CEO of Locality Bank, Keith Costello. Keith Costello is the President, CEO, and co-founder of Locality Bank, a new digital first community bank which opened in Fort Lauderdale, FL on January 12, 2022. It is the first new bank opened in South Florida since 2009. He served as the President & CEO of First GREEN Bank, a community bank headquartered in Orlando, Florida from 2016 until its sale in 2018. He was also President, CEO, and an organizing director of Broward Bank of Commerce, a new bank chartered in Florida on January 12, 2009. He has held senior roles at Bank of Florida, City National Bank and Nations Bank throughout a 30 plus year banking career entirely in S. Florida. Keith lives in Ft Lauderdale with his wife Denice, is a US Army Veteran and father of 4. Follow @@browardbanker Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (N/A)

Risk warehousing, Government paralysis and other interesting concepts from this week's guest, Dr. Richard Smith. How to mitigate self-defeating investment plans? AI and the potential for civilization - good stuff in this episode. When Dr. Richard Smith discovered that many top investment advisors and wealthy traders used special mathematical formulas to invest in the stock market, he decided to try it out himself. Using his own formula, he found that he could make more money and take less risk, regardless of market performance. In 2004 he used this algorithm to build one of the first online financial technology platforms. The platform worked so well he made it available to individual investors. In 2013 he founded TradeSmith, which started as a simple way to track portfolios and evolved into a powerful suite of risk-management and portfolio analysis tools. The company grew to over 30,000 investors who entrusted his technology with a staggering $20 billion, earning him the moniker “doctor of uncertainty.” After 16 successful years, he sold TradeSmith at the top of the market. Never one to sit idle, Richard’s newest endeavor, RiskSmith, levels the playing field for individual investors. Synthesizing his passion for simplifying complex financial markets and his background in mathematics and systems science, Richard has created tools that help investors better understand and evaluate risk in the market. According to Richard, “Most people have no idea how powerful of a tool good risk management really is. They look at risk as something to stay away from. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite. Once you understand risk, you can control it. By taking smart risks, you can truly transform your financial future.” Richard studied mathematics at U.C. Berkeley and earned his PhD in Systems Science from the Watson School of Engineering at SUNY Binghamton under the late Professor George Klir. Richard is also Chairman of the Board and CEO of Foundation for the Study of Cycles, an international nonprofit that promotes and conducts research of cycles and how they can be used to make the world a better place Follow @Investing_Dr   Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (CHGG)

Inflation CPI report as expected – markets – don’t know what to make of it. Banks still not getting any love - more shoes to drop. Debt ceiling talks going nowhere... This week's guest is Thoma Thornton - Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thomas Thornton is a former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst with Level Global Investors and Galileo Capital. Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry. His long term focus on sentiment indicators borders on the obsessive. Our growing team at Hedge Fund Telemetry is comprised of current and former buy and sell side individuals. Hedge Fund Telemetry was first conceived with inspiration from Tom’s lifelong passion following Formula 1 racing. In the early 90’s, Formula 1 teams started to equip cars with sensors on every imaginable component and data was relayed wirelessly through telemetry to the pits to analyze and then instructions from the pits were relayed back to the driver so he could make changes to find the optimal balance for the car. It has always been the same way for Tom, as a senior trader at his hedge fund, he would get in early, collect data from many sources, analyze that data, and then communicate information out to his firm so his team could properly balance the firm’s portfolio. It’s now our goal to relay that same type of information so that one can also gain that edge. Follow @TommyThornton Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Charts Discussed Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (PARA), (IEP), (SPY)