Friday Podcasts From ECSP and MHI

“The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today,” reads the opening of Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, produced by the National Intelligence Council. In this podcast, principal author Mathew Burrows breaks down some of the scenarios discussed in the report, and describes how demographic and environmental trends – two of four “megatrends” – could play out over the next few decades.

In this podcast, Jack Goldstone of George Mason University discusses the world’s demographic stresses in the coming years. In parallel to a growing trend of population aging in developed countries, much of the world will remain young, growing, and urbanizing, he said. The choices these growing countries make over the next few decades will have reverberating effects for the rest of the world, from conflict potential to the spread of stable democracies. Download his slides to follow along with the presentation here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Jack Goldstone Presentation_Global Trends 2030.pdf

In this podcast, journalist Sam Eaton describes the process of producing two pieces that aired on Marketplace and NewsHour last year on the connection between population, the environment, and food security in the Philippines. Eaton visited the rural village of Humayhumay where PATH Foundation Philippines, Inc., has a pilot program distributing contraceptives and teaching community members about conservation and sustainable livelihoods. Although Eaton said he was at first hesitant to tackle such an “abstract concept” as integrated population, health, and environment development, he found on the ground that it had “all the elements of a good story” and there were tangible benefits visible within the community. Eaton discussed his reporting at the Wilson Center on January 28. View and listen to Eaton's stories here: http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/food-9-billion/philippines-too-many-mouths http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/globalhealth/jan-june12/philippines_01-23.html

“Building resilience should help address the root causes of vulnerability, creating increased capacity to be able to adapt to a range of possible climate futures, not just cope…with specific climate impacts because if they don’t play out, in a fragile context that could be quite destabilizing and seen as a wasted opportunity,” says Janani Vivekananda. In this podcast, she reports on the findings of case studies regarding vulnerability to environmental risks and resilience conducted by International Alert in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

Increasing energy demands around the world will mean a continuing focus on other fuel sources and climate change, said Peter Thomson of PRI’s The World, including the use of coal in countries like China and the safety of hydraulic fracturing and nuclear power. Other areas to watch include water, agriculture, and possible tipping points like dieback in the Amazon rainforest.

Bloomberg BNA's Director of Environmental News John Sullivan gives an overview of the key legislative, regulatory, and legal developments expected in 2013, including the Keystone pipeline, the future for coal-fired power plants, and the potential actions that may be taken by Congress, the White House, and the Environmental Protection Agency.

“I’d like to start by stating emphatically that since addressing global inequality and inequity are our overall principles in revising the MDGs [Millennium Development Goals], we must focus on health inequities to have a meaningful and lasting impact on human development,” says Beth Schlachter of the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, speaking at the Wilson Center on January 9. “And for the most vulnerable – women and girls – that means we must focus on sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights.” The Millennium Development Goals, which have been the dominant international development framework since their inception, expire in 2015. Schlachter discusses the ways in which new development goals can include targets for sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights.

The Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development gave recommendations for developing Sustainable Development Goals to replace the soon-to-expire Millennium Development Goals. 2013 will be a critical year for the formation of these new goals and planning for the 20th anniversary of the International Conference on Population and Development. What role do population dynamics and reproductive health rights play in sustainable development? And to what extent should they be included in new development frameworks?

“When young people claim their right to education and health – including sexual and reproductive health – they increase their opportunities to become a powerful force for economic development and positive change,” said Nicole Gaertner, of UN Refugee Agency and the U.S. Department of State, quoting Secretary of State Hilary Clinton at the Wilson Center on December 13. Recognizing and addressing the difference between urban refugees and other vulnerable populations can help them reach their potential – both for their own good and the cities they reside in.

Driven by young populations in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Latin America, half the world is under 25 years old. Alongside this youthful age structure phenomenon is accelerating urbanization and an increasing number of refugees fleeing to cities instead of camps. “We all hear about the youth bulge all the time – that the demographic youth bulge is exploding all over the world – and its seen as a security threat and to the extent that this kind of programming gets funded at all for youth it’s usually…for security reasons,” says Chaffin. But Chaffin pointed out that in many cases, these populations of displaced young people represent the biggest resource a country has. “We firmly believe that when education, health care, basic needs are met for young people, and they have employment opportunities, that they can revitalize the economy.”

Suzanne Ehlers, President and CEO of Population Action International, discusses the links between sustainability,population, and family planning in this podcast. "Family planning can be a catalyst for societal change, the kind we're going to have to have to survive for generations to come," she says. Follow along with with Suzanne's presentation at: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-world-7-billion-building-sustainable-future#field_files

As the world population surpasses seven billion people, governments and societies must help a growing population cope with limited natural resources and a rapidly changing global climate. In this podcast, George Mason University professor Jack Goldstone talks about how population factors affect states’ stability, their output, and our shared global future.

Nigeria plays a leading role in Africa’s economic and political future. Yet media coverage and policy debates outside Nigeria rarely go beyond covering the latest crisis. In this podcast, Bolatito Ogunbiyi, an Atlas Fellow with Population Action International, goes behind the headlines to better understand key challenges and opportunities for the country, its neighbors, and the international community. She discusses the relevance of population and demographic trends to Nigeria's future.

Although the pace of world population growth has declined, it has not stopped and future projections remain uncertain. Further, the amount of uncertainty is significant: the difference between the United Nation’s high and low estimates for 2050 is 2.5 billion people. The assumptions that go into them are therefore very important to understand. In this podcast, Hania Zlotnik, former director of the United Nations Population Division, highlights the role of supportive governments and makes recommendations for international policies. Listeners can follow along by downloading her presentation here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Zlotnik%20Presentation_0.pdf

Speaking at the June 4 launch of the U.K. Royal Society's People and the Planet report at the Wilson Center, African Institute for Development Policy Director and Founder Eliya Msiyaphazi Zulu assesses population growth and consumption pressures on global well-being in this podcast.  There is an “urgent need to reduce material consumption of the richest, and increase consumption and healthcare for the poorest 1.3 billion people,” says Zulu. “We’re talking about having the majority of people in the world being able to flourish, being able to lead decent lives.”