Market to Market - Market Analysis

Planting delays and the potential for a major trade deal was a rising tide that lifted all boats. For the week, May wheat gained 10 cents while the nearby corn contract rose 6 cents. A combination of good export sales and a glimmer of hope there would be a U.S.-China trade agreement helped push the May soybean contract 15 cents higher. May meal improved $1.50 per ton. May cotton expanded higher by 64 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, May Class III milk futures added 29 cents. The livestock market was swept up in the optimism for a trade deal. June cattle added $1.35.

Don Roose, Naomi Blohm, Ted Seifried, and Darin Newsom discuss the commodity markets.

The impact of flooding, African swine fever and trade all factored into the markets. For the week, May wheat gained 4 cents while the nearby corn contract increased 5 cents. Traders appear to be disenchanted on the news coming from China in the soy complex. The May soybean contract fell 6 cents. May meal improved $4.20 per ton. May cotton expanded $1.08 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, April Class III milk futures added 43 cents. To say the livestock market had an interesting week is underselling it. June cattle added $1.57. May feeders jumped $5.60.

The bears appear to have left the market. The question is for how long. The big three commodities had their best performance in seven weeks as spring weather challenges appeared on the horizon. For the week, May wheat bounced higher by 23 cents while the nearby corn contract gained 9 cents. The saga of U.S. and Chinese trade talks took another turn this week as the president said he’s willing to walk away without a deal. The May soybean contract increased 14 cents. May meal jumped $7.10 per ton. May cotton improved $2.01 per hundredweight.

Weather is known to move the market this time of year. However, with heavy snow preventing early field work, it was the lead up and results to USDA reports that had the real impact. The numbers were mostly bearish. For the week, May wheat continued to plummet, this time down 18 cents while the nearby corn contract shed 9 cents. Traders appear to have tired of trade rumors and are waiting for facts between the U.S. and China before buying again. The May soybean contract declined 16 cents. May meal dropped $3.70 per ton. May cotton fell 36 cents per hundredweight.

Last week’s trade meeting with China produced upbeat news. However, Lighthizer’s report to Congress only added fuel to the cautious strategy being taken by commodity traders. For the week, May wheat plummeted 35 cents and the nearby corn contract fell 12 cents. Rumors of a trade deal between the U.S. and China were unable to counter worries that any agreement might fall through at the last minute. The lingering doubt helped pull the May soybean contract 12 cents lower. May meal dropped $2.00 per ton. May cotton added 84 cents per hundredweight.

A week of trade rumors and a confirmed high level meeting pushed much of the commodity markets higher. For the week, May wheat lost 15 cents and the nearby corn contract rose 2 cents. The May soybean contract finished 2 cents higher after battling back from a weekend low. The move was fed by buzz over letters of agreement with China and a Friday meeting between President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Lew Hee. May meal dropped $1.10 per ton. May cotton grew $1.15 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures gained 39 cents. The livestock market was mixed.

Nearly a week of no news from the China-U.S. trade talks and a major order cancellation pressured the grain markets lower. For the week, March wheat lost 13 cents and the nearby corn contract went through a 10 cent swing to finish flat. China’s change of heart on 800,000 metric tons of soybeans and an increase in yield numbers for Argentine crops pushed the March contract down 7 cents. March meal added 40 cents per ton. March cotton plummeted $2.33 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures lost 6 cents. The livestock market was mixed.

Before the 3-week budget deal was made, the commodity markets traded on South American weather swings and Chinese trade news. For the holiday shortened week, March wheat gained 2 cents and the nearby corn contract lost 2 cents. Hot weather in Brazil, rain in Argentina and a planned visit by Chinese trade negotiators added 9 cents to the March soybean contract. March meal dropped $1.20 per ton. March cotton gained 24 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures fell 22 cents. The livestock market remained mixed. April cattle shed 53 cents.

Rumors that an offer by the U.S. to lift tariffs and reports of expanded Chinese buying moved the corn and soybean markets higher. For the week, March wheat lost 2 cent and the nearby corn contract added four cents. A rumor trade tariffs would be eased went up against good harvest weather in Brazil. Between Monday and Friday, the March soybean contract bumped up 23 cents to finish 7 cents higher for the week. March meal rose 50 cents per ton. March cotton gained $1.40 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures fell 28 cents.

The shutdown suspended the major USDA report due today, but the markets traded anyway on lack of trade progress and weather. For the week, March wheat gained three cents and the nearby corn contract shed a nickel. Trade talks in Beijing failed to generate news of a breakthrough moving the March soybean contract lower by 11 cents. March meal dropped $4.40 per ton. March cotton declined 3 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures tumbled 24 cents. The livestock market rallied. February cattle gained $3.05. March feeders improved $2.07.

News about China, the weather in South America and funds looking for a place to put their money moved the commodity markets higher. For the week, March wheat gained six cents and the nearby corn contract rose 8 cents. The trade lacked export sales numbers due to the partial government shutdown so news of a Chinese trade delegation traveling to Washington, renewed sales to China, and hot weather in Brazil moved the March soybean contract 26 cents higher. March meal added $6 per ton. March cotton expanded 33 cents per hundredweight.

Technical signals mostly moved the trade as stalled government shutdown slowed news on export sales. For the week, March wheat fell 3 cents and the nearby corn contract also dropped 3 cents. A lack of demand and mixed South American weather reports muted moves in the soy complex as the March soybean contract moved lower by 2 cents. The March meal contract gained $2.90 per ton. March cotton trended lower again this week by 99 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures improved 14 cents. The livestock market was mixed. February cattle added $1.48.

Traders were hard-pressed to find any holiday cheer in the markets as China’s buying left a lot to be desired and money headed to the sidelines. For the week, March wheat fell 16 cents and the nearby corn contract dropped 6 cents. Chinese purchases are failing to keep pace with market expectations as the March soybean contract slid 16 cents. The March meal contract lost $1.50 per ton. March cotton plummeted $6.42 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures gained four cents. The livestock market has the winter blues. February cattle added 30 cents.

The news that China is buying soybeans from the U.S. for the first time in months failed to inspire the commodity markets.  According to Reuters, the White House has delayed additional market facilitation payments because it anticipates new sales to China. For the week, March wheat was flat and the nearby corn contract fought a see-saw battle to finish nearly even. Orders from China’s two major state-owned companies have yet to put a fire under the soybean market as the January contract fell 16 cents. The January meal contract dropped $3.90 per ton.