Summary: Despite the global recession, Koreans will continue to have positive views of U.S. leadership, the resiliency of American hard and soft power, and an appreciation of the critical role the United States plays in the region, given the rise of China. Koreans will hold a nuanced understanding of some of the domestic constraints on U.S. foreign policy, which does not reduce their anxiety about perceived negative trends in U.S. behavior. Although there has been a degree of hedging in ROK thinking about the United States and China influenced by past South Korean liberal administrations, current and future thinking is likely to remain strongly aligned with the United States. According to policy elites, Chinas behavior in the aftermath of the Cheonan sinking, the North Korean enriched uranium revelations, and the Yeonpyeong Island shelling has shifted the core strategic calculations of South Koreans, who now view a fundamental conflict of interest with China regarding North Korea and potential unification even as Seoul continues to seek economic opportunities in China. This recent turn of events will only increase ROK appreciation of the alliance with the United States as the cornerstone of its strategy.
