OSCAR TALK: Ep. 48 — Armond White vs. Darren Aronofsky, guilds speaking up, ‘True Grit’ box office, awards show/party weekend on the way, supporting actress wide open

Summary: Welcome to Oscar Talk. In case you’re new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar’s stage and we’re here to address it all as it unfolds. Today is the final day of phase one this season. Ballots are due by 5pm PT, so everyone needs to pick a chair before the music stops. And we have plenty to discuss as a result, so let’s see what’s on the docket today… • We lead off things today with the knock-down, drag-out brawl — okay, verbal tit-for-tat — between Armond White and Darren Aronofsky at the New York Film Critics Circle awards this week. • Two of the most prognosticative guilds spoke up this week, the DGA and the ACE. We discuss the implications of the shared nominees (as each group cited the same films, which are our “five”). • One film that missed with both of those was “True Grit,” which is coming on strong late in the game. We briefly touch on the impressive box office haul and the fact that it could be pulling into the station at just the right moment. • We also preview the awards weekend, with the BFCA’s Critics’ Choice Movie Awards tonight and the Golden Globe awards Sunday night. • The supporting actress category seems to be up for grabs this season and could go a number of different ways. We talk about the different possibilities. • And finally, reader questions. We address queries regarding “Black Swan” as a potential dark horse Best Picture winner, lurking nominee hopefuls in that field, the fact that the category is not called “Best Makeup in a Good Movie” and…contender drinking games? Have a listen to the new podcast below, with some musical antagonism leading the way. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here. (NOTE: Anne’s audio drops low for a portion of the podcast. Apologies for that. It’s not a problem, but just to let you know we’re aware.) Back-up download: Oscar Talk Episode 48