Summary: <br> Brendan is the Labour Party TD for Wexford, and former party leader. <br> <br> <br> <br> <a href="https://blog.hereshow.ie/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Brendan-Howlin-scaled.jpg" data-wpel-link="internal"></a><br> <br> <br> *****<br> <br> <br> <br> So, we’re talking about a war.<br> <br> <br> <br> We’re talking about a war where a huge, nuclear-armed superpower, attacks a territory to its south that this formerly-communist superpower views not as a real country, it views but as an integral part of its own country, and the superpower’s nationalist leadership is still pretty sore about how this territory got to be independent in the first place.<br> <br> <br> <br> To rub salt in the wound, this territory is doing much better, and is certainly much more democratic than the superpower; and another point of aggravation, this territory is politically much closer to the west, the United States in particular, and is receiving a huge amount of military aid from the west, and even though it is said to be exclusively for defensive use, the superpower sees that aid as a direct threat to its own security.<br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> And the war has the potential to have dramatic economic effects on the whole world, not to mention the danger of spreading into conflagration that could result in a world-wide nuclear war.<br> <br> <br> <br> And, thankfully, the war has not happened yet. The superpower is China, the territory is Taiwan and the parallels with the Russian attack on Ukraine are striking, even if there are some important differences.<br> <br> <br> <br> One of these differences, one vital difference, is that this war, this potential future war, even though it’s not in the headlines, it’s getting a huge amount of attention from the administrations in Washington and Beijing, and probably elsewhere. If we’re lucky, the war may never come, but the people that matter aren’t taking that risk. They aren’t shouting and beating drums about it – not yet, anyway – but they are gaming out scenarios, making contingencies, and planning for all eventualities.<br> <br> <br> <br> And, have no doubt about it, they are preparing for the possibility of war. Maybe a war where China overwhelms Taiwan within hours, maybe one where Taiwan manages to defend themselves, maybe they get American aid do that, maybe – though I think that’s unlikely – maybe the Americans intervene directly.<br> <br> <br> <br> Or maybe there will be no war at all. That last possibility is actually more interesting than you might consider. Think of the huge level of military spending, the effort and the time that Finland puts into its defence forces. It’s basically the last country in Europe to have universal male conscription into the army. They have a huge amount of military hardware, on a par with Germany or the UK, despite having a population about the same as Ireland.<br> <br> <br> <br> So, that’s huge for Finland, but it’s still tiny by the standards of the obvious aggressor, Russia – it’s even tiny by the standards of Ukraine. Why bother? If Russia wants to invade, they invade. Does it make sense to devote such a big chunk of the economy and society into preparing for a war that might never come, and if it does, they would lose anyway?<br> <br> <br> <br> Actually, it does make sense. The Finns can’t change fact that the Russians would win such a war – at least not until they join NATO, but that’s a different story – they can’t change that the Russians would win, but they can change what it would cost the Russians to win.<br> <br> <br> <br> All the Finnish military service, military hardware, military planning – it’s not aimed at making Russia not win, it’s aimed at making the cost of winning so high that the Russians will see it as not worth the effort. <br> <br> <br> <br> That’s the strategy that is being thought about in Washington and Beijing, and Taipei,
