Summary: SUMMARY: Will the Pacific ocean change-up called El Nino startle the world? The latest update from NOAA, plus two scientific experts. It's not what you think. Ends with backyard farmer Luke Kimmel and his green bag of tips. Mike Halpert, Dr. Shayne McGregor, Luke Kimmel. Radio Ecoshock 140514 Will 2014 or 2015 will be hottest in recorded human history? First we get the latest update on El Nino from Mike Halpert, Acting Director, of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in College Park, Maryland. Then I speak with ocean climate expert Dr. Shayne McGregor, and double check with Australia's Dr. Matthew England. It leads to a surprising conclusion. But stick around for the final interview. We go from fear to action, with Luke Kimmel and the Leaf Ninjas. They are transforming a city, one backyard at a time, with success in urban agriculture and neo-green job creation. Luke has good tips for you. Download/listen to this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB) NOAA UPDATE ON EL NINO We start with the story of the day, El Nino, first with the latest report from NOAA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They issued a new update on El Nino last Thursday. Mike Halpert serves as the Acting Director, of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in College Park, Maryland. He co-authored articles on climate variability and prediction. He's worked with ENSO and seasonal forecast teams. We get the latest from NOAA, plus Mike's predictions for North America. Download or listen to this 10 minute update from Mike Halpert here. El Nino source recommended by Mike Halpert. IS EL NINO GOOD NEWS FOR AMERICANS? For America, two good things could come from a strong El Nino. As you know, the entire state of California was declared in drought. Just this past week, the weather has been sizzling hot and dry there. Wild fires have broken out in several places in the southern part of the state, with tens of thousands of people evacuated. A couple of local listeners tell me they are struggling to keep their gardens alive. If an El Nino comes this winter, as predicted, it should bring heavy rains to California, breaking the drought. That could also allow a full planting, and may eventually reduce food prices, or at least stop the rise we've seen this year. The bad news is these storms can dump terrific amounts of rain, leading to coastal erosion and mudslides, especially where fires have stripped off the protective ground cover. Our second guest explains the rainy weather should extend over the whole southern United States, much of which has also been suffering from long-term drought. Again, that may be the start of rebuilding the cattle herd, which may limit the rise in beef prices about a year or two from now. Shayne McGregor says a warmer and drier winter in the northern states usually accompanies an El Nino. There's no guarantees of that though, as we have no experience in how an El Nino mixes with the dreaded Polar Vortex, though to be caused by Jet Stream disturbances in these days of Arctic warming and disappearing sea ice. It's a huge experiment with two mega-systems and nobody knows how that will turn out. SHAYNE MCGREGOR - THE EL NINO SCIENTIST FROM AUSTRALIA Maybe you heard that a system called El Nino could further destabilize the weather, and ring up another record hot year globally. The last big El Nino was in 1998, one of the hottest years on Earth, and a time of storms and fire-storms in may parts of the world. The next may arrive soon. Scientists have been working furiously to find how how this weather system works. They also want to predict when an El Nino is coming. In the heart of that hunt is Shayne McGregor. He's a Research Fellow at Australia's Climate Change Research Center, at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney. Shayne tells us what an El Nino is, and how we can tell whether it will be a MAJOR El Nino, a minor one, or something in between. It makes a big difference. We had minor El Nino's in 2005 and
