Betting 360 Ep 025: 2013 Melbourne Cup Preview with Luke Murrell
Summary: We've got Luke Murrell back for this week's podcast as we assess all the imported runners in the Melbourne Cup. Caulfield Cup - I just don't know about that race altogether and I'm not sure the Melbourne Cup winner came through it. Dear Demi is a good mare but her running well puts a little bit of a question mark on the form. They reckon it's the best batch of imports to come to Australia. Well I must be looking at something else because I can't see that. Brown Panther - you get a form line through Mawingo who beat Brown Panther a couple of times. I expect Brown Panther to come up a long way short in the Melbourne Cup. Has run weak sectionals at 2400m, so the 3200m has to be a concern. I couldn't have him in a fit. Couldnt lay him enough at $26. Caravan Rolls On - really good handicapper but his really good form was 12 months ago. If he stayed here he'd be a lightweight chance in some good races. Better horse than Brown Panther but he needs to win the Lexus to qualify. Dandino - best form is on rock hard tracks and he will need that on Tuesday. Similar to a horse like Natural Blitz in that if you spit on the track he doesnt go. Massive risk at the 3200m. I couldnt have him at all. Lay him all day at $11 the win and would also lay him the place. Dunaden - on what he's done in Europe this year the poor fella has seen better days. Going 7-8 lengths worse than he was last year. But he's such a good trier I'd throw him in the exotics. Wouldn't want to back or lay him at $41. Forgotten Voice - hasn't got anything really so you'd lay him as much as you could. Mount Athos - everyone obviously saw he what he did last year but he's a long, long way off his best form. Luca Cumani has brought a lot of horses here over the years but they just don't seem to do anything here. The mail I have is that perhaps he has a few issues. Huge lay at $9. Opinion - one to follow next year, does have some really good credentials. Red Cadeaux - going even worse than Dunaden and Mount Athos. Has a lot of holes in his form this year. Tough horse but no way. He's that far off them it's not funny. Lay all day even at $51. Royal Empire - has come through 3rd and 4th tier type races. Listed/Group 3 horse here but not good enough for the Melbourne Cup. Definitely lay at $21. Ruscello - his run the other day was just a run. Couldn't see him making the field and is more of a 2000m/country cup horse. Simenon - really surprised me the other day. Can't see him winning the race but if they are positive with him he might be able to hold on for a minor placing. Love the fact he's had one run here already but he's too short at $26 and you should get better odds on the day. Tres Blue - I took some of the $26 the other day. Will prefer a dry track. Has run low-34 sectionals at the end of 2400m. Has exceptional form and I think he'll run top 4 no problem. Real chance and I have him around $9 or $10. Verema - will handle wet or dry. Can sit just off the speed or be midfield. Can run closing sectionals that some of our sprinters couldn't match. Only slight worry is that she is a mare, but if she's travelled OK so is the perfect Melbourne Cup horse. Will relax in the run and show a turn of foot. Excellent trainer who can travel horses. Couldn't be more confident with her and very keen at $14. Voleuse De Couers - not sure she's as good as the hype. Is fairly small so might get knocked around a bit. Prefer to lay than back her at $14. Others - You want to back horses that have shown good form recently, not going off form from 12-18 months ago. Outside of Verema and Tres Blue I couldnt see any other imported horse winning, so you'd have to find a local hope to beat them. Fiorente ran well last year but it was not a genuinely run Cup. I think they will go a lot harder this year. Hawkspur - a risk. Mr Moet - a chance at odds as he is looking for the trip and has a turn of foot. Sea Moon - would be very keen on a wet track.