Betting 360 Ep 023: Cups and Cox Plate Previews with Luke Murrell
Summary: Luke Murrell is a regular spring contributor as he always has some very strong opinions on overseas horses and how they will fare in our big spring races. Many people consider him a top notch form analyst and it's with good reason: he studied under Rob Waterhouse and spends a lot of time and money buying imports for our big races via Australian Bloodstock. On this episode, Luke is bringing his raw opinions to give us some insights into the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and the Cox Plate. He tells us where he believes the real value is. Punting Insights You'll Find Why he is especially interested in German horses. Luke's suggested bets for the Caulfield Cup (see below for the update). Why the media seems to over-hype certain horses. Why Atlantic Jewel is at ridiculously short odds for the Cox Plate. A horse he believes is close to unbeatable in the Melbourne Cup. Updated Caulfield Cup tips following the barrier draw: 1. Waldpark 2. Mr Moet 3. Jet Away 4. Hawkspur/Mr Moriarty Today's Guest: Luke Murrell Luke's Closing Tip: " I live or die by my own stuff that I do, but there's probably not a better judge than Vince (Accardi). " Get the Transcript: Betting 360 Episode 23: Cups and Cox Plate Previews with Luke Murrell David: Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. My special guest today is Luke Murrell from Australian Bloodstock. And we like to have a chat with him each spring about the big cups and the Cox Plate, because in his role with Australian Bloodstock he spends a lot of time looking at the overseas horses, and looking to buy some of those overseas horses, and aim them at the big races. So he has a fair bit of knowledge of those, and manages to weigh those up against the local form as well. And he’s very honest in his opinions, and we really like that, we want to find out where he thinks the value is, and where he thinks there might be a false favourite. So let’s have a chat with Luke. David: Thanks for joining us today Luke. Luke: Yep, no problem at all. David: Good to have you on board. And I got in touch last week to tee up a chat about the cups and the Cox Plate, but that was before the winner Salon Soldier on the weekend. It must be hard not to get a little bit excited, when you see an import show a turn of foot like that? Luke: Yeah you always had that over in Germany. So, you know you’d like to see them, don’t get too excited until they can do it here. But I think you’ve sort of got to take into account, is a lot of the German horses are a little bit raw, but a lot of pitfalls there too. I know a few of the boys from different trainers have bought horses that haven’t measured up. So it is fairly exciting, albeit a little bit more exposed then say a horse like Lucas Cranach was. So yeah, he’s a very nice horse though. David: Yeah what plans do you have for him? Luke: Look I’ve got a fair opinion of him. I think he can measure up to a group one handicap for sure, and whether he’s a weight for age horse don’t know. Some of his form from overseas was just terrific, and with … Mackinnon, if that’s too hard, a couple of days later on there’s a listed race, and then we might end up in a zipping classic or something like that, just to get behind him, so we know where to go to in the Autumn. David: Fair enough. And then that continues, the success you’ve had with the German gallopers. I think last time we spoke, you mentioned that there was a little bit of an edge that you find, because there times aren’t necessarily accurate, and there’s a bit of importance in certain areas of the form that you place that maybe others don’t. What where you think you’ve gone right in a couple of instances, and you’ve mentioned that other people haven’t enjoyed the same success, what do you think that boils down to? Luke: I think in Europe greatly, Europe doesn’t take into account sectional times, I think it’s a bit miss.