Bettng 360 Ep 016: Horse Handicapping with Tony Kelzenberg and Derek Simon




Betting 360 - Betting From All Angles show

Summary: On this episode of the Betting 360 podcast, US-based horse racing handicappers Tony Kelzenberg and Derek Simon compare American and Australian punting, while sharing various tips and strategies for getting an edge. Tony has contributed articles for the Champion Picks blog and Derek focuses on speed rations (his unique take on speed ratings and assessments). It's another look at betting from a different angle.   Punting Insights You'll Find The major differences between Australian and American racing. How to use the early speed advantage to get the edge. Why the run of Secretariat would have been viewed differently today. One way of betting the quaddie. The general profile of a race that sets you up for success. How to use statistics to determine your edge. Today's Guest: Tony Kelzenberg Derek Simon - Simon Speed Rations and Twin Spires Derek's Closing Tip: " My ideal bet would be a horse with a high impact value that also can hold its own in terms of the odds, and is a reasonable price.  " Get the Transcript: David: Hi this is David Duffield and welcome to another episode of Betting 360 where we look at betting from all different angles. Today has a special treat we’ve got two guests on the line. We’ve got Tony Kellsinburg and Derek Simon. United States based handicappers, Derek in particular focuses on looking at speed rations which is his take on speed ridings and speed assessment so he’s got some interesting views there. And Tony Kellsinburg has contributed to our website before and written various previews and reviews of American racing but he takes a particular interest in Australian racing as well so he’s well placed to take a look at the strengths and in some ways the weaknesses of American racing vs. Australian racing and vice versa. So let’s have a chat with Tony and Derek right now. David: Hi Tony, I’ll start with you. Since you’re known to some of our readers, and some of our listeners. You’ve contributed to the blog before, but wanted to welcome you to the show, and how are you going today? Tony: Having a great day. And basically I’m on vacation, because as a teacher I don’t work in the summers very much. And it’s been great to get even more into horseracing then in the past. David: You mentioned you had a reasonable result today. But just to get started, you’ve got a pretty good insight into American racing versus Australian racing, you get a lot of our analysis that comes through, and yet you stay up late at night to have some bets on that. So what do you see as the major differences, between the way we approach racing in Australia, and the way you guys do it over in the US? Tony: I would say the main difference, from just watching the races, that in Australia it’s very rare that you get something easily. If you’re going to be the speed, somebody’s going to try to get in your face, if you’re coming from behind they’re going to make you go around. You’re not going to be able to split horses usually pretty easily. In America, horses, my impression is that jockeys are told to run as the horses like to have them run. And once the initial order out of the gate is determined, then the first 200 metres, that’s pretty much what you’re going to see until at least towards the end of the turn, and then going into the stretch, and then everybody starts to improvise at that point. But I think that the Australian races, there’s just a lot more strategy and competition in the first half of the race. David: Okay. And you’ve attended some of our webinars, and heard Vince Accardi speak. One of his influences was Doctor Sarton, and some other American speed handicappers. How do you apply that type of analysis into what you do? Tony: When I, as a starting person. The basic premises that horses are best when they’re allowed to run in their comfort zone. So if you have an on speed horse, and they’re allowed to run on speed, on the rail, and nobody distracts them,