NonProphets
Summary: NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
- Visit Website
- RSS
- Artist: Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
- Copyright: Copyright 2018 NonProphets
Podcasts:
Episode 6 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott update their US election forecasts, consider whether the prices of some politics-oriented PredictIt questions are too high, too low, or about right, and then discuss possible long-range events of broad social significance. The episode ends with a look at some possible US politics-related Black Swans. (recorded 10/14/2016).
Episode 6 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott update their US election forecasts, consider whether the prices of some politics-oriented PredictIt questions are too high, too low, or about right, and then discuss possible long-range events of broad social significance. The episode ends with a look at some possible US politics-related Black Swans. (recorded 10/14/2016).
Episode 5 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott update their US election forecasts after the first debate, discuss what kind of evidence they find probative, and examine a handful of interesting US domestic politics-related questions in the PredictIt market. The episode ends with a revisit to a previous Black Swan given recent Saudi Arabia-related developments. (recorded 9/28/2016).
Episode 5 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott update their US election forecasts after the first debate, discuss what kind of evidence they find probative, and examine a handful of interesting US domestic politics-related questions in the PredictIt market. The episode ends with a revisit to a previous Black Swan given recent Saudi Arabia-related developments. (recorded 9/28/2016).
Episode 4 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a handful of recent articles (links at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com) on rationality and decision making, as well as the Dunning-Kruger effect. The episode ends with a more broad Black Swan discussion involving US cultural conflicts and the upcoming election. With a special appearance by Sir Thomas More! (recorded 9/21/2016).
Episode 4 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a handful of recent articles (links at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com) on rationality and decision making, as well as the Dunning-Kruger effect. The episode ends with a more broad Black Swan discussion involving US cultural conflicts and the upcoming election. With a special appearance by Sir Thomas More! (recorded 9/21/2016).
Episode 3 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott check in on US election forecasts, then discuss some unusual forecasting questions hosted on Almanis and Good Judgment Open. The episode ends with a Black Swan Hunt involving Netflix's burgeoning rival, North Korea. (recorded 9/15/2016).
Episode 3 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott check in on US election forecasts, then discuss some unusual forecasting questions hosted on Almanis and Good Judgment Open. The episode ends with a Black Swan Hunt involving Netflix's burgeoning rival, North Korea. (recorded 9/15/2016).
Episode 2 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief finishes an in media res anecdote about Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell before Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the process of how they forecast in the context of the US election and the recent Brexit vote. Then, the guys close the podcast by going Black Swan hunting in Saudi Arabia with Robert. (recorded 9/7/2016)
Episode 1 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott introduce themselves, and then discuss Trump's chances in the upcoming US election, as well as Marine Le Pen's chances in the slightly more distant upcoming French election. The episode ends with a Black Swan hunt involving current and past events in the US. (recorded 8/24/2016)
