Betting 360 - Betting From All Angles
Summary: Betting 360 is here to help all you punters out there get in-depth information from sports betting and Australian horse racing experts. We've got analysts in the field crunching the numbers and an expert interview every week to give you that betting edge. Whether you're in to racing or sports betting, we've got you covered so tune in, sit back and prepare to place your bets with a little more confidence.
This week we welcome Matchbook.com CEO Mark Brosnan onto the podcast to talk about the ever-evolving world of betting exchanges. Mark shares his views about the betting industry, how Matchbook works as a high volume/low margin exchange and and the steps they are taking to stay ahead of the curve. Punting Insights You'll Find What changes have occurred since new management came on in 2011. The Matchbook has in place to draw interest in their service. How Matchbook can operate on incredibly low margins. What technological advances are being made in their product services. The future of Matchbook according to Mark. Today's Guest: Mark Brosnan of Matchbookwho are offering 0% commission on soccer until April 1st and in an exclusive offer for Champion Picks subscribers you can also bet on basketball at no commission until March 17th. But you must sign up via this link or you will be paying the normal rate. Mark's Closing Tip: " The best learning curve is essentially to come on and to place a straight wager, see how that works out. " Get the Transcript: Episode 35 : The New Betting Exchange Landscape with Mark Brosnan Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. David Duffield: Hi, this is David Duffield and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. This week, my special guest is Mark Brosnan the CEO of Matchbook.com. They are a rapidly growing betting exchange and I think that’s a very healthy thing for the sports betting industry to have a competitor that’s going to give Betfair a run for their money. They’ve come in with a low margin model which is great news for punters because it’s only a one percent commission. Thank you for coming on today Mark and can you just kick things off by telling listeners what Matchbook is? Mark Brosnan: Matchbook is what we classify as the world’s fastest growing betting exchange. It’s been around for 10 years and now under new ownership since 2011. Matchbook’s core competency up until 2011 was more of a B-to-B type offering, a clearing house as you would for large institutional type players for sportsbooks for clearing larger positions or hedging large positions that they didn’t want to keep under book going into game time particularly on North American sports and tennis. Under new ownership came a lot of new investment and a new focus on bringing this big liquidity pool created by the institutional players to the customers. I think our goal and our main strategy in Matchbook is to turn Matchbook into the world’s largest provider of high volume low margin liquidity. The mechanism we use to create a product is Matchbook and Matchbook is a betting exchange like a number of other betting exchanges out there. I myself have been in the industry for 10 years. I’ve seen 32 different betting exchanges try and fail and there’s only a handful of betting exchanges providing any meaningful liquidity out there and Matchbook is close to the top of that list. David Duffield: Okay, you mentioned 2011 was a fairly dramatic change in the betting landscape with what happened in the US. That’s the time that new investors and a new management team came in for Matchbook? Mark Brosnan: Absolutely, so the investors are a UK group of investors, very well financed and active in the gaming industry previously. They saw an opportunity in terms of the way that other liquidity providers in the industry had kind of shifted their focus from providing a low margin product. You are looking at some of our competitors introducing premium charges or increasing their commission rates and they’d also seen a large opportunity for low margin high volume betting in Asia with Asian handicaps being a very popular offering in Asia. There was a void in the market really in Europe for that kind of product offering.
This week we welcome decorated jockey Damien Oliver to the podcast and he talks about the approach he has taken to his professional career and what it takes to be successful on the track. Damien shares his thoughts on how he prepares for a race, han...
This week we welcome a professional punter from New Zealand to the podcast and to the Champion Picks team. In this episode he talks about the approach required to win in New Zealand and how the skills he learned in his earlier professional career have transferred to the betting world. Chris shares his unique perspectives on form analysis, some pointers on his winning methods and some tips on how to secure the best available odds. Punting Insights You'll Find What Chris looks for when watching trials. Which bookmakers he recommends and how he goes about spreading his bets. Whether it is better to bet early or late. Chris' thoughts on exotic bets, and the right time to use that approach. Some good websites for punters who are new to New Zealand racing. Today's Guest: Kiwi Chris - NZ horse racing tips Chris' Closing Tip: " I think that’s the way to game. You do all your form but then the track is doing some strange things and you’ve got to be prudent and think long term." Get the Transcript: Episode 33 : Punting in New Zealand with Kiwi Chris Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. Dave: Hi! This is Dave Duffield and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. My special guest today is Kiwi Chris. He is a professional punter from New Zealand who has had an amazing run really, just fantastic results that I've witnessed live for the past six months. He has only been a full-time professional for the past year, but the results he has been achieving have been excellent and a small part of that he pays tribute to someone that we've got on our team – Dean the Trial Spy. Now he has adapted that approach to New Zealand in some ways and also given that a twist and added his own skills and achieving some really good results. So, let's have a chat with Chris. Dave: Hi, I'm Tim here and I've got Chris on the line to run us through his approach to betting in New Zealand racing. He's got an approach that has been very successful over the last six months that we've been in touch and for a bit longer before that. Welcome to the show, Chris. How are you going? Chris: Good, thanks. Dave: That's good. Might as well start off with just tell us a little bit about your background, your career prior to betting and then also how you got involved especially trading and then on the betting side of things. Chris: Sure well. I was actually in the electrical industry for around fifteen years. Then I went back to school, so to speak, and retrained within the fitness industry where I was basically self-employed. And, as I was doing that, I was sort of tinkering with the trading on Betfair and playing it, pumping it a little more seriously. Dave: So, you mentioned your background as an electrician. Any skills that cross over to the betting world? Chris: Ah, yes, I guess, just the ability to, the attention to detail so to speak and also the ability to sort of analyze situations and look at the data and take the information that you need from there and siphon out the stuff that you don't. Dave: All right, so you've had a couple of career changes, electrician, and then fitness industry and then the Betfair trading. What where you doing there? And, how did you go? Chris: I was primarily trading pre-race on Australian racing and a little bit of the U.K. stuff as well. I found that to be quite successful. So that's when I started to get out of the fitness industry and focus primarily on the trading. Dave: And why did you not continue to do that? Chris: Basically, around a year ago the Betfair introduced the turnover tax, certain states in Australia, and which is pretty much 90% of where my trading was, so that took quite a big chunk out of my profit so I started looking into alternative sort of income streams.
With the biggest American betting event of the year on the horizon, this week we welcome Todd Furhman to the show, former odds maker for Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas and creator of the Bettor's Code. David discusses the various laws and elements of Todd's Bettor's Code to clarify how they can help bettors everywhere, and apply to us punters and other forms of gambling as well. You'll also hear Todd's take on the Super Bowl coming up and where there might be some value. Punting Insights You'll Find Why you should never ask another man how much he bets. The protocol for gambling honesty, and why it matters among punters. Striving for the best price, and how that gives you the best value as a bettor. Why trashing handicappers can ruin your betting and give the industry a bad name. How confidence, even during losing streaks is absolutely necessary for your success. Today's Guest: Todd Furham Bettor's Code ToddsTake.com Todd's Closing Tip: " I think proposition markets are always going to create a good opportunity for the punter." Get the Transcript: Episode 32 : The Bettor’s Code with Todd Furhman Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. David: Hi, this is David Duffield. Welcome to another edition of the Betting 360 podcast. Today on the podcast we have Todd Furhman. He is an expert on FoxSports, Out Kick The Coverage, Don Best and also his own website Toddstake.com. I have got him on to talk about the Bettor’s Code as he calls it. The rules that any punter should live by. Also to have a chat about the Superbowl as that is not too far away and I think most Australian punters will be checking it out. Let’s have a chat with Todd right now. Thanks for joining us today Todd. Todd: Thank you for having me David. Looking forward to it. David: Yeah, it is going to be good. Some of the listeners will have seen your work on Fox Sports or Don Best or your own site Toddstake.com, but for those who that have not, can you just give us a quick overview of your background in sports betting? Todd: Sure, I was a former odds maker at Caesar’s Palace for the better part of five years. About two years ago decided that I was going to look to explore some other opportunities that try and really go after writing about the industry; covering it for mainstream media. Fortunately enough I have found a few outlets to explore that creative side and like you alluded to FoxSports and Donbest have created two great homes. Then for a little bit unique stance where I can kind of be my own voice so to speak, Toddstake.com a blog and more or less an overflow than anything else. David: You mentioned Toddstake.com. That is one of the reasons I wanted to get you on the podcast here. You came out with the Bettor’s Code, the rules that you suggest bettors should live by. So I will run through those and then get you to expand on them. The first one was never ask another man how much he bets. What do you mean by that? How does that apply to betting? Todd: It is one of those things that is an unspoken rule between bettors. You need never go up and ask another man how much he made financially for the calendar year or exactly what he was spending all his money on. The same type of ethics and protocol should adhere to sports bettors. There is a sharp opinion out there whether it is a five dollar punter or someone who is playing for a little heavy stakes. It is all relative in terms of what your expectations are. Is it professional? Is it recreational better? But my own take on that is no opinion should be discounted based on just the volume that you are actually putting into action.
Our guest this week on the Betting 360 podcast has a number of years experience in the corporate bookmaking industry. He is also a keen and successful punter so he is in the perfect position to give us some real insight into how to avoid 'red flags' when betting with the corporates. It's a common question - how can I keep my account from getting restricted or banned? Nathan does a great job answering it. Punting Insights You'll Find What kind of a staking level to stay at to avoid getting flagged. The unfortunate reality that successful punters face. How to position yourself to be a client that a bookmaker really wants. Bookmakers' preferences for bet types. Some of the sneakiest ways to avoid getting flagged. Today's Guest: Nathan Nathan's Closing Tip: " When you have a run of success like that, that's a good time to increase your bet size." Get the Transcript: Episode 31 : How to Avoid Being Banned David: Hi this is David Duffield and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. My special guest today is a veteran of the corporate bookmaking world and he’s also a keen punter, so it’s a really good position to be in to give us some insights into what the corporates are looking at when they’re considering limiting or closing down your account. One of the biggest battles these days is being able to get on for a reasonable amount for Australian horse racing. He’ll let us know some of the red flags as to why people’s accounts can be closed or as I said, limited, and give us some pointers on exactly how to avoid that happening so that you’re in it for the long haul so, lets have a chat with Nathan. Hi Nathan and thanks for joining us. Nathan: No problems Dave. David: I appreciate you coming on the show. It’s a common question that I get whether it’s in the office, by email or if I’m out and about, a lot of people are having problems in getting set for what they’d like to. I thought with your background and experience you could run us through a few of the ways that probably would give you a bit of longevity and stay under the radar. In terms of staking levels, and we’re primarily talking horsing racing here rather than sports betting, what kind of a staking level can you remain at to make sure your account is unlikely to get flagged? Nathan: You eventually will get flagged once you’ve won 10,000 dollars or more in profit, but to stay under their radar before then, realistically you want to be betting no more than 80 dollars per bet. David: When you say 80 dollars a bet that’s obviously the stake. What about the collect or the return because does it matter if you’re having it on even money shot versus a ten to one shot? Talk us through that. Nathan: In terms of return the alarm bells will go off if someone wins 1,000 dollars on a bet, that’s going to raise alarm bells no matter what your staking level is. If you’re going to place a bet that returns over 1,000 dollars, definitely split it up between different bookmakers. Each bookmaker will have different levels but 1,000 dollars is the key value for most bookmakers. David: But the stake amount can be a trigger as well. Even if you’re having it on a relatively short priced horse, if you’re over that 80 dollars threshold the warning signals can go. Nathan: Yeah indeed. Particularly once you get up to 100 dollars you’ll be picked up by everyone. Every bookmaker will say okay this guy is spending a hundred per bet, they’re going to have a look at your account, and they’ve got business intelligence analysts who will go through and try to identify patterns regardless of your stake levels. Particularly if you go over 80 dollars, you will get picked up. David: You’re saying there are people whose sole role at the corporate bookmakers is to identify unprofitable, whether that’s currently unprofitable or likely to be unprofitable, accounts? Nathan: Yep indeed.
Rick Williams, our Senior Form Analyst, is back with more of his great insights for punters. This week he's sharing his thoughts on how we can make the most of an often overlooked class of race and that is maidens. There are more maidens than any other class of racing, which allows for plenty of opportunities, but lots of room for error as well. Rick has some important tips on making them profitable. Punting Insights You'll Find The rationale behind betting on maidens. The number one consideration when looking at maidens. How to assess the qualities of a race to determine if it's worth your money. When to not place so much reliance on the speed of a horse. Why there can actually be a ton of value in maidens. Today's Guest: Rick Williams Rick's Closing Tip: " If you've got a horse that's going to be running in the city, you've gotta punt on those things." Get the Transcript: Episode 30 : Rick Williams on Betting on Maidens David: Hi this is David Duffield and welcome to episode 30 of the Betting 360 podcast. I’ve got Rick Williams our senior form analyst back as our special guest today and he doesn’t need an introduction but what we’re going to talk about is betting on maiden races. There are more maidens than any other class of race so it’s worth exploring them in detail and seeing where the value might be. Some people think there are some poor quality runners going around but there are times when there’s some good value there, so lets have a chat with Rick. Thanks for joining us again Rick. Rick: Yeah, no worries mate. David: Good to have a chat with you about maiden’s today. I wanted to run through a few of the reasons why we get involved and others that we might avoid. There are some people that don’t like maidens at all but obviously they’re the most common form of race in Australia so what’s our approach to betting on maidens? How would you summarize it? Rick: I think maidens can sort of be good or bad. I’ve certainly found probably a few years ago that maidens weren’t really a type of race that I wanted to focus on a lot but since working with the Times and creating the data base and I guess having the information at hand, it really does paint a clear picture that there’s certainly a lot of good opportunities to be made through those types of races if you do have the right information. I think obviously there’s a correlation in all racing between class and speed. As you get up higher in grades, your Saturday races and group races class becomes a lot more prominent, but when you’re dealing with lightly raced horses that are finding their way, and are yet to win, I do think your class figures in that are certainly less prominent. Speed certainly is the key indicator there is the best way to highlight a horse’s ability early on. For the maidens and I really don’t pay much attention to the class figures because it’s not where the edge is. The edge is in the speed. That’s where I’m at with all that it’s heavily based towards speed the lower grade of the race. David: With the speed figures, are you assessing I suppose the benchmark for maiden runners or is it more about relative to other horses on the day and in part times or what people would call part times in terms of the last 10, 12 years? Rick: It’s got nothing to do with maidens as such it’s looking at all the horses that say performed at Yarra Glen over 1400 meters then looking at some different factors and coming to a conclusion as to where that sits in the pecking order. We’re not doing a maiden versus a maiden. When I’m looking at the results on the day it could be the maiden versus the rating 68 or something like that. They’re all in the bucket together as such and it’s trying to pick the right one in the right race. Also, it’s okay to have a speed number but I think it’s very important that you understand why that number was produced and how that number was produced.
Dan Weston is the founder of Tennis Ratings, a UK based tennis trading advice website with some of the most valuable tennis resources on the internet. With the Australian Open coming up, the timing was perfect to have Dan on the Betting 360 Podcast ...
Sean Callander has an extensive background in sports and poker journalism, publishing and management. He's been around the gambling arena since poker began to take off in Australia. Over the last few years he's been working on trying to educate our politicians on online poker, in-play betting and other parts of the Interactive Gambling Act. However, he's run into quite a few struggles and quite a lot of ignorance. On this episode, he shares his insider knowledge and his thoughts about the future. Punting Insights You'll Find The quickly changing betting landscape and how it effects you. Why casinos don't have any vested interest in helping the lobby groups. One example of why the battle is a difficult one. What needs to happen for online gambling (and in-play gambling) to be legalized. When the biggest changes will be coming. What separates professional poker players from the rest. Today's Guest: Sean Callander - Monarch Media | Poker Media Sean's Closing Tip: " Betting on what politicians think can be a pretty bullish thing. " Get the Transcript: Episode 028: Sean Callander on Poker and In-Play betting Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. David: Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. My special guest today is Sean Callander, he’s the cofounder of Monarch Media, and pokermedia.com.au, and he’s got a pretty interesting background in sports betting and poker industries. And he’s also got some pretty good insights to share, as he’s part of what you might call a lobby group that’s doing some work in Canberra in an effort to get in-play betting and online poker legalised. So he can give us an update on where things sit there, and the likelihood of success, so let’s have a chat with Sean. David: Thanks for joining me today Sean. Sean: David great to be with you. David: Yeah, excellent to have you on the show. And I just wanted to start by letting the listeners know a little bit about your background. If you can just give us a bit of a run through of the roles you’ve had in the industry, and the companies you’ve worked for, and also founded. Sean: Sure. Well I’m a hard working sports journo, that’s my background. Came up through the cadetship in the UK, worked at the Croydon Advertiser in the southern suburbs of London, up to the Daily Mail. And when I came back to Australia I worked for the Fairfax Group for a number of years, and then lastly with the Australian Football League. I worked on the Footy Record which was a bit of a dream job as you can imagine, and so spent 3 very satisfying years there. And in 2006 along with my now business partner Steven Doyle, we decided to go out on our own, and Steven’s background in management and mine in publishing, we formed our own publishing business called Monarch Media. And early on we identified that there was an opportunity in the game as poker was starting to take off, there was no real poker media here to speak of. And we found it was a niche big enough for us to operate a small business, but not big enough that there was a lot of competition. So over the past 7 years that business has served us really well, we set up Bluff Australasia magazine, which we merged into international organisation called Poker News. And yeah things were flying along in that area until we had some legal pressures, due to the way the Interactive Gaming Act is structured. But we’ve sort of maintained a commitment to poker going forward, we’ve gone off into other areas now, but it’s always going to be very close to our hearts, and you know hopefully we can make a go of it again soon. David: Yeah you mentioned the legal pressures and the legislative changes. Do you want to just expand on that a little,
Nick Aubrey is back on the show today to discuss quaddie betting. Nick is an expert at using mathematics to discover where the best opportunities are in punting. On this episode, Nick shares his best suggestions on how to actually win as a quaddie punter since most people aren't able to do that. You'll hear why he believes quaddies can be a profitable bet type and what the major advantages are of this style of punting. Punting Insights You'll Find The inherent advantages in quaddies. Why a quaddie has the opportunity to consistently be a winning bet if you play it right. Nick's rule of thumb as far as the Big 6 goes. Using mathematics to discover where the best opportunities are in quaddies (and save yourself from big losses). The sweet spot as far as coverage in each race. Today's Guest: Nick Aubrey | TAB Pro Bet Nick's Closing Tip: " If you know about the punting style... then you probably can use that to your advantage. " Get the Transcript: Episode 027: Nick Aubrey on Winning With Quaddies Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. David: Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. Today I’ve got Nick Aubrey back on the show, Anomaly Nick, and I want to talk to him about quaddie betting. It’s an area that’s really popular, but possibly or probably, not particularly successful for most punters. They chase a big pay day, and often get three legs home, or otherwise when you do win a quaddie it pays under what you expected. So we’ll have a chat with Nick, and see where the opportunities are with quaddie betting, and yeah just where people might be able to take a smarter approach. David: Thanks for coming back on the show Nick. Nick: Pleasure, pleasure to be here. David: Good to have you again. And I wanted to talk to you today mainly about quaddies. Punters love them, even a quick look at the pools will tell you that, but I don’t speak to many guys who could honestly say that they’re fairly successful long term betting on them. Why do you think that is? Nick: Well I’m not quite sure why people shouldn’t be successful, maybe they’re not successful in all aspects of their punting, I’m not sure. But quaddies do represent a very good way to bet, especially if you’ve got some runners, horses that you’ve got, that you want to back in several races, and you want to know what’s a good way of combining your bets. And quaddies do represent a very good way of doing that. David: And can you just explain to, I know you have a maths related background, and you are Anomaly Nick by name. But can you just explain the inherent advantages of quaddie betting versus all up? Nick: Yes. Yeah I’d love to. Maybe the best way to explain it is to give a very simple example, hopefully it’s simple. But please pull me up if it gets a bit mathematical. But let’s just consider a five horse race, right, where the runners, if the runners dividends are 2,4,6,8,10, surprisingly the sum of those odds adds up to about what the TAB takes out on the win pool. Right, so if there’s a quaddie where all the runners, in all the legs, there’s just five runners, and their dividends are 2,4,6,8,10, then the sum of those odds adds up to 114%, right, for the win. However, with a quaddie, what happens is that the TAB doesn’t take out a margin on each leg, it takes it out on the entire four legs, the quaddie. And if you do the maths you’ll find that, rather than taking out about 14% on each of the legs, because they only take out 20% on the total pool. Then what that means is that for instance the $2 dollar shot that the TAB’s betting for the win, now that’s after their deduction, the, what they call, you can calculate what you call a normalised win dividend, and that $2 dollars is actually $2.28. Now 28 cents doesn’t sound much,
Rick Williams is our Senior Form Analyst here at Champion Picks and he's got some incredible knowledge regarding most aspects of doing the form and finding winners. A key part of that success is choosing the right races to get involved in and on this episode of the Betting 360 podcast, instead of having him talk about the specifics of what horse to bet on he's telling us all about how to decide which style of race offers the best betting opportunities. Punting Insights You'll Find What to look for in metropolitan vs. non-metro races. When track conditions play a major part in his decision making. The major importance in building a good base on your analysis systems. Why he doesn't have any rules regarding race distance or class. How the likely pace of a race influences his analysis. Today's Guest: Rick Williams Rick's Closing Tip: " Sometimes you just have to rule a line through horses because for whatever reason, they're not suited. " Get the Transcript: Episode 026: How To Select A Race To Bet On with Rick Williams Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. David: Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. Fresh off a couple weeks break, we had the Flemington spring carnival week, and then I’ve had some time in Hong Kong and Macau recently, so had a freshen up and then good to go again. And today on the show I’ve got Rick Williams, he’s the senior form analyst here at Champion Picks. And I wanted to talk to him about how to go about selecting a race to get involved, so not so much selecting a horse, but more about the types of events that can lend themselves to backing winners at a decent price. And also which races you might be able to put a line through pretty early on. So we don’t have hard and fast mechanical rules about how we go about that, but just to give you an idea of maybe some races you can look to exclude from your detailed form analysis. So I’ll have a chat with Rick right now. David: Good to have you back on the show Rick. And just wanted to talk to you about what you can consider when looking to get involved in a race, whether there’s any type of events that you put a line through pretty quickly, and others that get you excited and wanting you to be involved. So I’ll just run through a few different factors about what plays a part in the decision making, and you can let me know how important it is, starting off with the state, where abouts do you focus most of your efforts and why? Rick: A couple of different ways I bet. Obviously I produce ratings, and for that sort of stuff I focus on Victoria predominantly, and I do a little bit of New South Wales, mainly the Sydney Metro. I also keep track of different horses that run through all the states, but basically for the purpose of tracking them as a black booker, as opposed to developing a set of ratings, that the next time they step out I keep a speed rating for all the horses and a class rating. So if I wanted to I could, but just for the quality of races that I target for those particular events, you know just to sort of track them, and time wise as well. You know to do a set of ratings everywhere everyday using possible, you know manually. So yeah I just try and stick to Victoria and the Metro for Sydney for the ratings, and yeah track as many as I can elsewhere. David: And so there’s the occasional hit and run mission. Like this week we bet in Townsville, and last week Pinjarra, so when there’s a real stand out you’ll bet anywhere. But outside of that the focus is Victoria, and to a lesser extent New South Wales? Rick: Yeah. I mean I think it’s important you know when you’re betting, to try and understand each horse as an individual as much as you can. They all have different traits,
We've got Luke Murrell back for this week's podcast as we assess all the imported runners in the Melbourne Cup. Caulfield Cup - I just don't know about that race altogether and I'm not sure the Melbourne Cup winner came through it. Dear Demi is a good mare but her running well puts a little bit of a question mark on the form. They reckon it's the best batch of imports to come to Australia. Well I must be looking at something else because I can't see that. Brown Panther - you get a form line through Mawingo who beat Brown Panther a couple of times. I expect Brown Panther to come up a long way short in the Melbourne Cup. Has run weak sectionals at 2400m, so the 3200m has to be a concern. I couldn't have him in a fit. Couldnt lay him enough at $26. Caravan Rolls On - really good handicapper but his really good form was 12 months ago. If he stayed here he'd be a lightweight chance in some good races. Better horse than Brown Panther but he needs to win the Lexus to qualify. Dandino - best form is on rock hard tracks and he will need that on Tuesday. Similar to a horse like Natural Blitz in that if you spit on the track he doesnt go. Massive risk at the 3200m. I couldnt have him at all. Lay him all day at $11 the win and would also lay him the place. Dunaden - on what he's done in Europe this year the poor fella has seen better days. Going 7-8 lengths worse than he was last year. But he's such a good trier I'd throw him in the exotics. Wouldn't want to back or lay him at $41. Forgotten Voice - hasn't got anything really so you'd lay him as much as you could. Mount Athos - everyone obviously saw he what he did last year but he's a long, long way off his best form. Luca Cumani has brought a lot of horses here over the years but they just don't seem to do anything here. The mail I have is that perhaps he has a few issues. Huge lay at $9. Opinion - one to follow next year, does have some really good credentials. Red Cadeaux - going even worse than Dunaden and Mount Athos. Has a lot of holes in his form this year. Tough horse but no way. He's that far off them it's not funny. Lay all day even at $51. Royal Empire - has come through 3rd and 4th tier type races. Listed/Group 3 horse here but not good enough for the Melbourne Cup. Definitely lay at $21. Ruscello - his run the other day was just a run. Couldn't see him making the field and is more of a 2000m/country cup horse. Simenon - really surprised me the other day. Can't see him winning the race but if they are positive with him he might be able to hold on for a minor placing. Love the fact he's had one run here already but he's too short at $26 and you should get better odds on the day. Tres Blue - I took some of the $26 the other day. Will prefer a dry track. Has run low-34 sectionals at the end of 2400m. Has exceptional form and I think he'll run top 4 no problem. Real chance and I have him around $9 or $10. Verema - will handle wet or dry. Can sit just off the speed or be midfield. Can run closing sectionals that some of our sprinters couldn't match. Only slight worry is that she is a mare, but if she's travelled OK so is the perfect Melbourne Cup horse. Will relax in the run and show a turn of foot. Excellent trainer who can travel horses. Couldn't be more confident with her and very keen at $14. Voleuse De Couers - not sure she's as good as the hype. Is fairly small so might get knocked around a bit. Prefer to lay than back her at $14. Others - You want to back horses that have shown good form recently, not going off form from 12-18 months ago. Outside of Verema and Tres Blue I couldnt see any other imported horse winning, so you'd have to find a local hope to beat them. Fiorente ran well last year but it was not a genuinely run Cup. I think they will go a lot harder this year. Hawkspur - a risk. Mr Moet - a chance at odds as he is looking for the trip and has a turn of foot. Sea Moon - would be very keen on a wet track.
A special two-guest podcast episode starting with Chad Schofield, the champion apprentice of New South Wales and Victoria. Chad's got some great insights into race day preparation, track bias and his first Cox Plate ride. Then we have Greg Conroy who is the Founder and Managing Director of RewardBet which is some free software that can help you get better returns from exotic betting like quinellas, exactas and trifectas. He shares some knowledge about why exotics should be a key part of your punting activities. Punting Insights You'll Find How Chad prepares for race day and Saturday's Cox Plate. At what point in the day that track bias should be taken into consideration. The most important asset to a good jockey. Why the every day punter makes the same mistake betting the exotics. How to take advantage of all of the available market information. The primary ways RewardBet can help you make better decisions. Today's Guests: Chad Schofield Greg Conroy Greg's Closing Tip: " At the end of the day, punting is all about trying to get an edge and moving with the times. " Get the Transcript: Betting 360 Ep 024: Champion Apprentice Chad Schofield and RewardBet Founder Greg Conroy David: Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. Got a couple of special guests today. Chad Schofield, champion apprentice of NSW and Victoria, and has his first ride in the Cox Plate this Saturday. And also Greg Conroy, the director and founder, managing director I should say, and founder of RewardBet. Where there’s some pretty good software to help you to be a lot smarter, and hopefully a lot more successful in the way you go about your exotic bets. So let’s have a chat with Chad and then Greg. David: I’d like to welcome Chad Schofield to the show. How are you today Chad? Chad: Yeah I’m very well thank you. David: That’s good. Pretty exciting week for you, you’ve a got ride on Shamus Award in the Cox Plate on Saturday. Chad: Yeah I’m thrilled to have been given the opportunity by Danny O’Brien and his owners. Obviously the horse has 49 and a half, which limits a lot of jockeys, but fortunately for me I can ride that weight comfortably. And as I said I’m thrilled to be in touch with a big prestigious race, and I’m really looking forward to Saturday. David: And what can you tell us about the horse? I know it’s fairly early in the week that we’re chatting. But have you got any plans as far as where you’d like to be in the run? Chad: I haven’t ridden the horse yet, but I’m going to go ride him tomorrow morning, and I’m looking forward to having a feel of him for the first time. And obviously it’s pretty early in the week, I haven’t had a good look at the race. But just having a quick glance, it appears to be a lack of tempo in the race. I’m on a young fit horse with no weight on his back, drawn a perfect barrier so, I’ll have to go through the race with the connections of the horse, and we’ll come up with a tactic that best can suit our chances. David: So how do you prepare for a meeting in terms of speed maps, doing the form, and then assessing the track conditions on the day? Chad: Yep, obviously I do all my own form and speed maps. I like to sit down the night before, and go through the replays and do the form. So I’m looking forward to getting stuck into it. David: And how does that normally take? so you’re watching the replays, you’re actually going through a fair way back into your horses form to see where it’s performed best. What’s the process of having a plan for the race? Chad: Yeah obviously I watch all the replays. I pick up on any pattern the horse has maybe going, and you know it’s data with Vince Accardi, and a bit of planning and that involved, but it’s an aspect of it that I enjoy doing. David: And so what’s your use of say the Vince Accardi stuff, is someone that we work closely, and we’ve heard Mark Van Triet, your manager on the line before.
Luke Murrell is a regular spring contributor as he always has some very strong opinions on overseas horses and how they will fare in our big spring races. Many people consider him a top notch form analyst and it's with good reason: he studied under Rob Waterhouse and spends a lot of time and money buying imports for our big races via Australian Bloodstock. On this episode, Luke is bringing his raw opinions to give us some insights into the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and the Cox Plate. He tells us where he believes the real value is. Punting Insights You'll Find Why he is especially interested in German horses. Luke's suggested bets for the Caulfield Cup (see below for the update). Why the media seems to over-hype certain horses. Why Atlantic Jewel is at ridiculously short odds for the Cox Plate. A horse he believes is close to unbeatable in the Melbourne Cup. Updated Caulfield Cup tips following the barrier draw: 1. Waldpark 2. Mr Moet 3. Jet Away 4. Hawkspur/Mr Moriarty Today's Guest: Luke Murrell Luke's Closing Tip: " I live or die by my own stuff that I do, but there's probably not a better judge than Vince (Accardi). " Get the Transcript: Betting 360 Episode 23: Cups and Cox Plate Previews with Luke Murrell David: Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. My special guest today is Luke Murrell from Australian Bloodstock. And we like to have a chat with him each spring about the big cups and the Cox Plate, because in his role with Australian Bloodstock he spends a lot of time looking at the overseas horses, and looking to buy some of those overseas horses, and aim them at the big races. So he has a fair bit of knowledge of those, and manages to weigh those up against the local form as well. And he’s very honest in his opinions, and we really like that, we want to find out where he thinks the value is, and where he thinks there might be a false favourite. So let’s have a chat with Luke. David: Thanks for joining us today Luke. Luke: Yep, no problem at all. David: Good to have you on board. And I got in touch last week to tee up a chat about the cups and the Cox Plate, but that was before the winner Salon Soldier on the weekend. It must be hard not to get a little bit excited, when you see an import show a turn of foot like that? Luke: Yeah you always had that over in Germany. So, you know you’d like to see them, don’t get too excited until they can do it here. But I think you’ve sort of got to take into account, is a lot of the German horses are a little bit raw, but a lot of pitfalls there too. I know a few of the boys from different trainers have bought horses that haven’t measured up. So it is fairly exciting, albeit a little bit more exposed then say a horse like Lucas Cranach was. So yeah, he’s a very nice horse though. David: Yeah what plans do you have for him? Luke: Look I’ve got a fair opinion of him. I think he can measure up to a group one handicap for sure, and whether he’s a weight for age horse don’t know. Some of his form from overseas was just terrific, and with … Mackinnon, if that’s too hard, a couple of days later on there’s a listed race, and then we might end up in a zipping classic or something like that, just to get behind him, so we know where to go to in the Autumn. David: Fair enough. And then that continues, the success you’ve had with the German gallopers. I think last time we spoke, you mentioned that there was a little bit of an edge that you find, because there times aren’t necessarily accurate, and there’s a bit of importance in certain areas of the form that you place that maybe others don’t. What where you think you’ve gone right in a couple of instances, and you’ve mentioned that other people haven’t enjoyed the same success, what do you think that boils down to? Luke: I think in Europe greatly, Europe doesn’t take into account sectional times, I think it’s a bit miss.
Gerard Daffy was one of the pioneers at Centrebet and has been involved in the bookmaking industry all his adult life. He now heads up media relations at TattsBet, and in this episode Gerard discusses the changing betting landscape in Australia. ...
Dave recently celebrated his 40th birthday and had a great number of insights to share in a recent blog post on 40 punting lessons. Those lessons are explained and expanded upon in this week's podcast. Punting Insights You'll Find How losing can set you on a winning path. Why lazy punters lose. The importance of not falling in love with a horse. Why not to focus on big name trainers and jockeys. What horse racing and poker have in common (and how it can change your strategy). Today's Guest: David Duffield David's Closing Tip: " Success is like being pregnant... everyone congratulates you, but no one knows how many times you were ... (fill in the blank). " Get the Transcript: Episode 021: 40 Punting Lessons From 40 Years Hi this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 podcast. Normally we have a special guest on, we’ve done that for the first 20 episodes, but today I just wanted to run through the 40 lessons in 40 years that I posted just recently in line with my 40th birthday. Not everyone wants to read a post like that, so I just thought I’d run through it on this podcast. So the first thing was, anyone who claims they never went through a losing apprenticeship early on, is long odds on to be having you on. And what I mean by that is, some people purport to be experts who’ve never had a losing run of any kind. Well from the people I’ve met it’s definitely a learning curve, and most people have gone through an apprenticeship of some kind, where they don’t do very well, they lose, and they find out the reasons why they’ve lost, and they do actually learn from that. So pretty much everyone at some stage, normally early on in their career have had a really bad patch, or even an extended patch where they haven’t done well. But as I said before, you work out why that’s happened, and then you add that to your knowledge, and from there you can develop into a winning punter. Number two is, betting with an edge offers superior returns to any other investment class. When you see a lot of investments of various kinds spruiked in the media, if they can achieve a 10% annual return that’s seen as an excellent performance. In the betting world a 10% return is a reasonable month. So I just think compared to other investment forms which many of them are, you know it’s basically just gambling, but in another name. That what’s traditionally known as gambling, that offers better returns then you can get anywhere else. Number three, was staking and money management are the most underrated aspects of gambling. I’ve spoken and written about that many times, but a lot of work goes in sometimes people doing the form, not so much into how they’re actually going to back that horse. We do mention a lot the balance between risk and reward, but people don’t really put a lot of thought into the staking, and also the money management. As in, how they’re going to cope during losing runs, and also how they’re going to stay controlled when they’re on a really good winning run. Related to that is number four, and that’s no one avoids drawdowns, so why be surprised when you go through it. I’ve written an article quoting Mike Tyson saying ‘everyone’s got a plan, until they get hit in the head’. It’s the same with drawdown, people say that they’ll stick with an approach despite a losing run, but when push comes to shove many people pull the pin too early. There’s no point having a betting bank unless you’re going to use it, there’s no point being surprised when you have a period of drawdown as it’s inevitable. So don’t fight it, just make sure you’ve got a money management plan that can withstand it. Number five, was overestimating your edge, it can make an otherwise successful punter go bust. This isn’t clear to everyone, but we had Elihu Feustel on the podcast I think it was our very first guest. But with him he explained that, if you’re betting in some form of Kelly criterion,